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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231122
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
622 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A strong cold front is crossing the southeastern Gulf of Mexico 
from 22N85W to 26N82W. Gale force northerly winds are occurring 
north of 24N west of the front with seas to 20 ft. These 
conditions are expected to continue through the evening hours. 
For more information, please refer to the latest High Seas 
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

The same cold front noted above is moving across the west 
Atlantic supporting southwest winds ranging between 30-40 kt 
north of 25N west of 77W and seas building to 14 ft. These 
conditions continue through the next 48 hours as the front moves 
across the area with winds ranging between 30-35 kt by the 
evening hours north of 23.5N and within 180 nm east of the front.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes across the coast of Africa near 09N13W 
to 03N20W. The ITCZ begins from that point and extends to 01S45W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N-06N between
30W-48W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A vigorous upper-level trough over the southern United States 
supports a strong cold front that extends from 22N85W to 26N82W. 
Gale force winds are occurring behind the front mainly north of 
24N. Please refer to the Special Features section for more 
details. The cold front will continue to move rapidly 
southeastward and exit the eastern Gulf by later this morning. 
Winds and seas will gradually subside by the afternoon hours. 

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1017 mb surface high is centered over the central Atlantic and 
extends across most of the basin. The tail end of a surface 
trough extends over the Virgin Islands with isolated showers. The
latest scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate trades 
across the basin except north of 15N west of 78W where fresh to 
strong southerly winds prevail ahead of a cold front that
currently extends from 22N85W to 16N87W. The cold front will 
reach from eastern Cuba to the Honduras/Nicaragua border by 
this evening. Strong northwest winds will occur north of the 
front. Little change is expected elsewhere. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Dry air in subsidence prevails over island at this time. 
These conditions will prevail through the day. A cold front 
approaching from the northwest will bring increasing southerly 
winds through Tuesday. Showers are possible on Tuesday through 
Tuesday night as the front crosses the island.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong cold front extends from 31N79W to 27N80W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed along the front affecting the 
west Atlantic waters west of 75W. Gale-force winds are occurring 
east of the front. To the east, a 1017 mb surface high prevails 
across the west Atlantic centered near 26N56W. A weakening 
stationary front extends from 30N43W to 23N51W. Scattered showers 
prevail east of the front between 38W-42W. A surface trough extend
from 22N56W to 17N65W with isolated showers. A 1028 mb high 
pressure is centered near 33N24W dominating the eastern Atlantic. 
Thunderstorms and winds will continue through this afternoon over 
the Florida offshore waters in the vicinity of the cold front with
gale force winds. Please see the Special Features section above 
for more details regarding this gale. The weakening front in the 
central Atlantic will dissipate. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA