AXNT20 KNHC 280542
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Depression Two is centered near 29.5N 76.4W at 28/0600
UTC or about 270 nm SE of Charleston South Carolina and about
275 nm SE of Hilton Head Island South Carolina moving WNW at 10
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Isolated
moderate convection is from 26N to 31N between 74W and 77W. See
latestNHCintermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headersMIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.
Tropical wave extends from 03N21W to 14N19W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 18W and 25W
andwas noted in the Dakar Senegal upper air time section
analyses. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N
between 13W and 17W.
Tropical wave extends from 04N55W to 11N56W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 54W
and58W on the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge
anchoredeast of the Lesser Antilles near 15N60W. Isolated
moderate convection is inland across northern Brazil from the
Equator to 04N between 53W and 58W.
Tropical wave extends from 09N71W to 17N70W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave continues to interact with an upper level trough
overthe central Caribbean Sea and coincides with an area of
maximum 700 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of the wave
axis over portions of western Venezuela. Isolated moderate
convection is from 07N to 15N between 67W and 73W.
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
06N20W. The ITCZ axis extends from 05N22W to 02N32W to 04N52W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 46W and
GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level low and associated troughing is over the
central US plains that supports a broad middle to upper level
diffluent zone over eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi
River valley. This diffluence aloft along with lower level
moisture and instability is supporting a squall line of
scattered to broken tstms extending from 29N94W to the Texas
coast near 29N97W. Scattered showers surround the strongest
convection mainly N of 27N W of 92W in the NW Gulf waters. Other
isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the western Gulf
W of 91W from earlier convection initiated across eastern
Mexico. Much of the basin is experiencing moderate to fresh E-SE
winds and this synoptic pattern is expected through Sunday.
Thereafter...surface ridging will build south along 90W
decreasing winds slightly...maintaining light to gentle
anticyclonic flow and overall stable conditions.
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the central Caribbean with primarily dry and stable NW flow
influencing much of the basin W of 77W. Conditions W of 77W
remain fairly tranquil with only a few isolated showers
occurring S-SW of Jamaica from 14N to 17N between 76W and 82W. E
of 77W...maximum middle to upper level diffluence along with the
presence of a tropical wave along 71W is providing for scattered
showers and isolated tstms between 60W and 73W. The current
upper level trough will gradually lift N of 20N by
Monday...however upper level troughing will persist across the
SW North Atlc off the coast of Florida with a relatively weak
diffluent environment remaining E of 75W across
Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and the US/UK Virgin Islands through
Tuesday. This will result is increased probabilities of
precipitation through the middle to next week across the north-
central and NE Caribbean.
Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are
occurringacross the island and adjacent coastal waters. The
presence of a tropical wave along 71W is also focusing low-
levelmoisture convergence across the island. Given the
dynamicsat all levels in the vicinity of Hispaniola during
thenext 24 hours...continued precipitation is expected
Tropical Depression Two continues to provide focus for the
SWNorth Atlc waters this evening as it tracks towards the
SEUScoast. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc
isunder the influence of a relatively diffluent environment
aloft due to a middle to upper level low and trough axis
extending from 30N81W to 21N74W. Scattered showers and
isolatedtstms are occurring N of 18N between 61W and 73W.
Theupper level troughing is expected to persist off the
coastofFLorida through Tuesday. Farther east...a pair of
1024mbhigh centers influence the central and eastern Atlc
centered near 30N37W and 29N48W. Overall...fair weather
conditions prevail E of 55W.
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