AXNT20 KNHC 290543
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
143 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A strengthened pressure gradient is expected to materialize across
the Gulf of Venezuela by 01/0000 UTC and generate near gale to
gale force NE winds. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.
Tropical wave extends from 05N25W to 17N25W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing S of 10N between
20W-28W and remains embedded within Saharan dust. As a result
scattered moderate convection is confined from 04N-07N between
Tropical wave extends from 05N44W to 12N47W to 19N47W moving W at
20 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 43W-
52W and remains embedded within Saharan dust. As a result...no
significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this
Tropical wave extends from 05N63W to 18N62W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave continues moving on the southern periphery of a SW North
Atlc mid-level ridge anchored near 28N57W. Scattered moderate
convection is across Venezuela from 04N-08N between 63W-66W.
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to
05N23W to 05N30W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 05N30W to 06N34W to 04N43W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-12N between 10W-16W...from 04N-08N between
17W-28W...from 04N-11N between 33W-41W...and from 05N-08N between
GULF OF MEXICO...
Primarily northeasterly flow aloft prevails between an upper level
low centered over the SW Gulf waters near 20N96W and an upper
level ridge axis extending along 29N from an upper level
anticyclone centered near 28N83W to southern Texas near 29N98W. Upper
level diffluence associated with the ridging and weak surface
troughing analyzed from southern Georgia to west-central Louisiana
is supporting isolated showers and tstms N of 27N between 88W-
97W. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin remains relatively
tranquil due to a weak ridge axis extending across the basin along
25N/26N. Generally gentle to occasional moderate anticyclonic
winds are expected through Wednesday night as the ridge axis
remains nearly stationary. The frontal troughing to the north will
also remain stationary through the remainder of the week.
An upper level anticyclone is centered over the western Caribbean
near 13N83W. This feature is providing an diffluent environment
aloft to support scattered showers and tstms generally S of 14N
between 80W-86W. Other scattered showers and tstms are to the
east occurring within the Gulf of Honduras region and across
interior portions of Guatemala this evening. The remainder of the
basin remains under the influence of a very broad troughing aloft
as an upper level low is centered over the SE Bahamas near 22N73W.
The troughing supported earlier convection across Cuba and
Hispaniola...and while this continues to dissipate...a few
lingering isolated showers are occurring within the adjacent
coastal waters of these two islands. In addition...a tropical wave
along 62W is introducing isolated showers to the Lesser Antilles
at this time with stronger convection occurring across interior
portions of Venezuela. The wave is expected to move west and
increase precipitation probabilities during the next few days for
the basin. Finally...while moderate to fresh trades prevail
across much of the basin...fresh to strong trades persist S of 16N
between 67W-79W due to a strengthened pressure gradient across
the south-central Caribbean region. Little change is expected
during the next 24 to 36 hours.
Currently...lingering isolated showers are continuing to gradually
dissipate. Southwesterly flow aloft is noted on water vapor
imagery this evening...and this environment along with peak
daytime heating and instability will promote isolated showers and
tstms again Wednesday late afternoon into the early evening.
A 1011 mb surface low is centered across SE Georgia providing
focus for scattered showers and tstms N of 31N W of 78W. Farther
northeast...a middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on
water vapor imagery near 35N67W that is supporting scattered
showers and isolated tstms N of 28N between 61W-68W. The
remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by
a 1036 mb high centered W-NW of the Azores near 41N38W.
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