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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291733
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 5N9W THEN ALONG 3N12W 1N18W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W. 
THE ITCZ IS COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 10W-20W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA 
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE UPPER RIDGE 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS JUST TO THE SE AND IS ADVECTING TROPICAL 
MOISTURE ACROSS THE S GULF. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT PRODUCING ANY 
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY 
A 1032 MB HIGH OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
ACROSS TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO GIVING THE GULF 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH MID WEEK. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WITH A STATIONARY FRONT 
ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN OVER FAR E CUBA NEAR SANTIAGO DE CUBA 
THEN W TO JUST S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N80W WHERE IT 
DISSIPATES ALONG 18N83W TO 16N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-79W AND 
S OF 20N W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS THEN INTO THE 
W AND CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS 
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN E OF 70W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE 
GENERATING SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER 
ANTILLES AND IN THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 62W-66W. 
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES 
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME DIFFUSE 
THROUGH MON. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN INCREASING 
TO STRONG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH 
MID WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 
MODERATE ON MON THROUGH MID WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...                                                
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF S HAITI ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE FRONT OVER E CUBA. THE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL 
SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT 
SHIFTS E INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                             
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND 
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE 
REGION NEAR 32N61W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N67W TO THE TURKS AND 
CAICOS NEAR 22N74W TO FAR E CUBA NEAR SANTIAGO DE CUBA WHERE IT 
BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT. REMNANT 
MOISTURE IS LINGERING OVER THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE FRONT 
AND COULD STILL PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER. AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS NE TO 
BEYOND 32N52W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED 
BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N48W. A CUTOFF 
UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 26N43W SUPPORTING A SURFACE 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N45W ALONG 28N42W TO 23N41W. 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 
21N-26N BETWEEN 38W-41W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM 
E OF THE AZORES. THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TODAY WHILE THE FRONT S OF 25N WILL 
REMAIN STATIONARY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE W ATLC AND SETTLE ALONG 28N BY LATE 
MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION FROM 
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW


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Page last modified: Sunday, 29-Mar-2015 17:33:19 UTC