000
AXNT20 KNHC 161812
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Apr 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1750 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 
04N18W, crossing the Equator along 27W, to 02S39W, to the Equator
along 49W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated 
strong is from 10N southward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the area from the NE corner of the
Gulf to the SW corner of the Gulf. Lake Okeechobee in South 
Florida, into the NE part of the Gulf of Mexico, toward the upper 
Texas Gulf coast.

Fresh to strong SE winds are in the western half of the Gulf.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are elsewhere. Moderate seas are 
in much of the Gulf of Mexico. The exception is for slight seas in
the NE corner of the area.

The combination of high pressure centered over the NE Gulf and 
relatively lower pressure in the western Gulf will result in fresh
to strong winds pulsing off the northwest Yucatan peninsula 
during the next several nights. Similar winds are also forecast in
the western Gulf today. Otherwise, moderate winds and seas will 
continue through most of the week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NE winds are within 135 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 73W and 77W. Moderate to rough seas are from 13N
southward between 74W and 80W.

A first surface trough is along 23N57W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 
20N60W, to the island of Guadeloupe, to 13N63W. Moderate to fresh
SE winds are to the east of the first surface trough. Easterly 
moderate to fresh winds are between the first surface trough and 73W.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are between 73W and 80W. Moderate
to fresh NE winds are from Honduras northward from 80W westward, 
and in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas are 
elsewhere from 80W eastward. An exception is for slight seas in 
the Venezuela coastal waters near 70W. Slight seas are in the 
remainder of the area that is from 80W westward.

A second surface trough passes through 24N70W in the Atlantic 
Ocean, through the Windward Passage, to 17N75W.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 
at 16/1200 UTC, are: 0.36 in Guadeloupe. 0.33 in San Juan in 
Puerto Rico This information is from the Pan American Temperature 
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

High pressure north of the islands will result in fresh to 
locally strong easterly trade winds pulsing nightly in the south- 
central Caribbean Sea through Wed night. Fresh to occasionally 
strong winds will also pulse in the Windward Passage, south of the
Dominican Republic and in the lee of Cuba for the next few days. 
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas can 
be expected across much of the basin through the middle of the 
week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A first surface trough is along 31N61W 24N70W, through the 
Windward Passage, to 15N75W in the Caribbean Sea. A second surface
trough is along 23N58W, to 20N60W, to the island of Guadeloupe, to
13N63W in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Broad moderate to fresh
cyclonic wind flow, and rough seas, are from 20N northward 
between 62W and 76W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely 
scattered strong is from 20N northward between 45W and the first 
surface trough.

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 35N29W. Broad cyclonic wind
flow, with fresh winds and moderate to rough seas, are from 28N 
northward between 22W and 36W.

Fresh to strong NE winds are 02N to 20N between 40W and 54W. Fresh
to strong SE winds are from 16N to 25N between 54W and 57W. 
Mostly fresh to some strong NE to E winds are elsewhere from 20N 
to 30N between 50W and 62W. 

Mainly fresh easterly trade winds, and moderate to rough seas, are
in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean from 35W westward. 
Moderate or slower winds, and slight to moderate seas, are in
the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean from 35W eastward.

A large trough extends from 31N62W to the southeastern Bahamas 
and to the Windward Passage. The trough will continue to produce 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the 
southeastern Bahamas, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico through Thu as 
possible weak low pressure forms along it and tracks 
northeastward. Decaying northerly swell across the waters 
impacting Puerto Rico southward to the Leeward islands will linger
through early Wed afternoon. Building high pressure over the 
waters north of 20N will result in more tranquil marine conditions
later this week. 

$$
mt/ja