Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 230529

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.


Hurricane Maria is centered near 24.1N 71.7W at 23/0300 UTC, or 
about 335 nm east of Nassau, moving north-northwest at 8 kt. 
Minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed 
is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is within 90 nm of the center, except within 120 nm in 
the south quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere 
from 21N-30N between 66W-75W. Maria is forecast to slowly decrease
in intensity during the next couple of days while it turns more 
northward. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the complete NHC 
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC 
for the complete details.

Tropical Storm Lee is centered near 31.5N 49.0W at 23/0300 UTC, 
or about 904 nm east of Bermuda moving north at 6 kt. Estimated 
minimum central pressure 1009 mb. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt 
with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
in the north quadrant. Additional scattered moderate convection 
is located to the southeast of Lee from 24N-30N between 41W-52W 
associated with a middle to upper-level low. Lee forecast to turn 
to the northeast over the next couple of days. Please see the 
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for the complete details.


A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa with axis extending 
from 17N18W to 02N21W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Abundant 
moisture is present with the tropical wave axis as measured by 
SSMI TPW imagery. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-10N 
between 15W-25W. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending 
from 19N49W to 05N53W, moving west at 10 kt. Plentiful moisture 
is present near the tropical wave axis as indicated by SSMI TPW 
imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-20N between 


The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near 
13N17W to 06N31W. The ITCZ extends from 06N31W to 06N51W. Besides
the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, no
activity is present along these boundaries at this time.



A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored over the
northeast CONUS. This pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate
east to southeast flow with mainly 1 to 3 ft seas across the Gulf
of Mexico. Isolated showers are observed over the eastern portion
of the basin supported by a middle to upper level trough extending
from an upper-level low centered over southwest Georgia. Little
change is expected through the next 24 hours.


A surface trough trails Hurricane Maria which is moving north-
northwest away from the north coast of Hispaniola. The trough
extends from 20N74W to 13N78W. Associated outer rainbands of 
Maria continue to induce flash flooding over Puerto Rico although 
this activity should gradually diminish during the next couple of 
days as Maria continues to move away from the area. The remainder 
of the Caribbean is fairly tranquil with gentle to moderate winds 
west of the surface trough, and moderate to fresh easterly flow 
in the east Caribbean east of the trough. Aloft, a middle to 
upper-level trough extends across the northwest Caribbean with 
mainly dry and stable air, while upper anticyclonic flow prevails 


Outer rainbands associated with Hurricane Maria, which continues 
to move north-northwest away from the north coast of the island, 
continue to support scattered rainfall and localized flash 
flooding mainly over the far east portion of the island. Activity
should gradually diminish during the next couple of days as Maria
continues away from the area.


Please refer to Special Features section for more information on 
Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Lee. 

Otherwise, a surface trough is over the northwest portion of the 
basin reaching from near 31N77W to 26N80W. This trough is supporting
scattered showers from the western Bahamas to the Florida Peninsula.
Another trough extends south of Lee from 28N51W to 22N55W. No 
significant convection is observed at this time. The remainder of 
the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a
1022 mb high centered near 27N38W.

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Page last modified: Saturday, 23-Sep-2017 05:29:41 UTC