Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 222337

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.


Atlantic Gale Warning: A 985 mb low is centered at 35N55W with a 
cold front entering our area near 32N48W and extending 
southwestward to 18N63W.  S to SW gale-force winds are located 
north of 27N east of the front to 44W.  The gale conditions are 
expected to diminish in our area by 23/0600 UTC.  See latest NWS 
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/Vicinity KNHC 
for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 
04N16W.  The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 
04N16W to 00N44W to the South American coast near 01S47W. Widely 
scattered moderate convection exists from 01N-06N between 05W-



As of 2100 UTC, a 1003 mb low is centered over the northeastern 
Gulf of Mexico near 28N84W.  A cold front extends south-
southeastward from the low to the Florida Keys and western Cuba. 
As observed by the WSR-88D radar network, numerous showers are 
occurring in the Gulf of Mexico east of 85W, most of the Florida 
peninsula, the Florida Straits, and central Cuba.  However, 
there is almost no lightning flashes associated with this 
extensive area of showers and cloud top temperatures are 
generally -40C or warmer. Scattered showers exist elsewhere east 
of 90W in the Gulf of Mexico.  Winds behind the front across 
early the entire Gulf are rather weak - generally northwest at 
20 kt or less.  The surface low and front are supported by a 
collocated upper-level low, as seen in the water vapor imagery. 
Showers should subside over the eastern Gulf and Florida 
peninsula on Thursday and winds remain weak for the next couple 
of days.  The winds in the western Gulf will switch to southerly 
late Thursday and Friday ahead of the next cold front to reach 
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico late Friday.


As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from western Cuba to the 
Gulf of Honduras.  Ahead of the front, a prefrontal trough 
extends from central Cuba to near the Honduras-Nicaragua border. 
 Scattered showers are occurring within 60 nm of the trough, as 
seen in the Cuban and Grand Cayman radars.  South to 
southwesterly winds ahead of the front are 15 to 20 kt.  West to 
northwest winds behind the front are 20 to 25 kt.  Elsewhere 
across the Caribbean, winds are very light - 15 kt or less. The 
front should push slowly eastward and its associated winds will 
diminish along the front by Friday morning.  Scattered showers 
should continue to occur in association with the front over the 
central Caribbean, Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola through Friday.


A weak convergence line extends from the central Caribbean 
across the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti, which is causing some 
scattered showers over Haiti.  As the prefrontal trough and 
front approach Hispaniola, showers could be enhanced on Thursday 
and Friday in both Haiti and Dominican Republic.


A 985 mb low is centered at 35N55W with a cold front entering 
our area near 32N48W and extending southwestward to 18N63W.  See 
special feature above regarding gale conditions.  20 to 25 kt W 
winds behind the front extend down to about 25N west of the 
front to 60W.  Ahead of the front, a prefrontal trough extends 
from 22N51W to 13N57W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
located within 120 nm of the front north of 22N and within 180 
nm east of the trough.  Farther west, SE winds of 20 to 25 kt 
are occurring north of 23N west of 78W to the Florida coast in 
the flow ahead of a surface low/cold front.  Numerous showers 
are occurring in the same vicinity, including the Florida 
peninsula and the northwestern Bahamas.  

The 985 mb low will quickly move northeastward during the next 
two days and winds greater than 20 kt will be north of our area 
by Thursday night.  The cold front should not progress much more 
to the south or the east, and should gradually fade by Friday. 
In the western Atlantic, a frontal low should move off of the 
Florida coast and E to SE winds should reach gale ahead of the 
by Thursday afternoon.  An associated cold front should extend 
from the low to eastern Cuba.  The low and front should move 
slowly eastward by Friday afternoon with gale force winds ahead 
of the front.  Continued scattered to numerous showers should 
occur within 120 nm of the front through Friday.

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Feb-2017 23:37:12 UTC