Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 240605

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.


The center of Tropical Storm Harvey on 24/0600 UTC is near 22.6N 
92.6W, or about 356 nm SE of Port Mansfield Texas. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The estimated 
minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. An Air Force Reserve 
hurricane hunter aircraft measured tropical storm force winds, 
pressure, and location of Harvey on 24/0400 UTC. Numerous strong 
convection is from 22N-25N between 90W-93W. Scattered moderate 
convection is elsewhere from 20N-26N between 89W-92W. Some 
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey 
could become a hurricane by Friday evening. Please see PUBLIC 
ADVISORIES issued under the WMO/AWIPS header WTNT34 KNHC/ 
WTNT24 KNHC/MIATCMAT4 for more details.


A tropical wave is off the W coast of Africa associated with a 
broad cyclonic circulation. The wave axis extends from 17N20W to 
08N21W, moving W at 10 kt. The CIRA LPW imagery shows abundant 
moisture at low levels associated with this wave. The wave is also
associated with a 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is E of the wave axis from 12N-15N between 16W-

A tropical wave extends from 22N38W to a 1012 mb low within the 
monsoon trough located near 17N38W to 11N38W, moving W at 15 kt. 
Satellite imagery indicates a large area of cloudiness in 
association with this wave, but convection is limited. This wave 
remains in a very moist area based on TPW imagery and has a well 
pronounced 700 mb trough.

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean and 
extends from 20N80W through Panama to the E Pacific near 05N80W 
moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough, and 
is well depicted in the SSMI TPW moisture imagery. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 11N-14N between 78W-82W. Scattered
showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the wave axis. 


The monsoon trough extends from 13N17W to 12N22W to 15N30W to 
12N40W to 12N44W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis 
continues from 12N44W to 11N50W to 07N58W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to 
strong convection is from 08N-13N between 25W-29W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 08N-11N between 29W-37W. 



The main concern in the basin is Tropical Storm Harvey moving
towards the Texas coast. Please, see the Special Features section
for details. As of 24/0300 UTC, a surface trough extends from N
Florida near 30N83W to the Straits of Florida near 24N83W. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the E Gulf 
E of 84W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered 
over NE Mexico near 24N99W, and an upper level high is over the
central Gulf. Expect heavy rain and flooding over portions of the
Florida peninsula during the next few days due to the surface


A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean Sea. 
Please, see Tropical Waves section for details. Scattered showers
remain along Cuba and adjacent waters being supported by a broad 
area of diffluent flow aloft. Isolated moderate convection remains
over E Honduras and NE Nicaragua. Scattered showers are also over
Costa Rica and Panama due to the eastern extent of the Pacific 
monsoon trough. Expect the W Caribbean and Central America to have
more convection over the next 24 hours mostly due to the tropical


Mostly fair weather is presently over the island. Daytime 
heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting will 
continue to combine with available moisture to produce scattered 
showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours today. 


Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please see 
above. Isolated moderate convection is over the northern and 
central Bahamas. A 1022 mb high is centered over the central 
Atlantic near 34N48W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level
low is also centered near 32N63W.  

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Page last modified: Thursday, 24-Aug-2017 06:06:09 UTC