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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 012321
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 PM EDT WED APR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 5N9W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS 
AND CONTINUES THROUGH 1S25W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR  
4S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S TO 2N BETWEEN 
14W AND 23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED OFFSHORE OF SW 
FLORIDA NEAR 26N86W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO SE LOUISIANA. SE 
RETURN FLOW AT 10-15 KT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF EXCEPT 
15-20 KT LOCALLY IN THE CENTRAL GULF NW OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF 
WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. 
OBSERVATIONS IN THE NW GULF WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TEXAS AND 
WESTERN GULF CURRENTLY REPORT REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF            
3-5 NM WITH FAIR WEATHER REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF. 
LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE BASIN ORIGINATING FROM THE 
TROPICAL E PACIFIC OCEAN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE 
BASIN EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THEY ARE FRESH TO 
STRONG. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN AND NEAR THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL AS S OF HISPANIOLA THU NIGHT THROUGH 
FRI. SEAS ARE MAINLY 4-7 FT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT NEAR 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THEY ARE 8-11 FT. WIDELY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NE CARIBBEAN...BETWEEN CUBA AND 
JAMAICA...AND OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN 
HISPANIOLA.

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE 
WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN ORIGINATING FROM THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING 
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS WITH DRY AND MAINLY STABLE 
AIR IN PLACE.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND AS A STATIONARY 
FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NW OF HISPANIOLA. THIS FRONT WILL 
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH SHOWER 
ACTIVITY PERSISTING UNTIL FULL DISSIPATION OF THE FRONT OCCURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N42W TO 25N50W TO NEAR THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING 
WITHIN 30-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST 
TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG 32N EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SOUTH 
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BORDER. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S AND 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 30N W OF 68W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH 
APPEARS TO BE FORMING ACROSS THE WATERS E OF FLORIDA ALONG 77W 
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO DROP TO THE S ALONG 29N-30N TONIGHT...WITH THE 
SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTION DISSIPATING BY THU EVENING WHILE THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE E ACROSS  
THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLC WATERS.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 40W FROM 18N TO 24N. ONLY 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR THIS FEATURE.

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGHING IS PRESENT FROM 32N52W TO NEAR 
THE TURKS AND CAICOS WITH UPPER MOISTURE STREAMING IN ACROSS THE 
ATLC W OF 65W. RIDGING EXTENDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FROM 32N38W 
TO AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WELL TO THE S-SW NEAR 07N55W. A SHARP 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N24W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LEWITSKY

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 01-Apr-2015 23:22:03 UTC