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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 020602
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W STARTING AT 0600 UTC TONIGHT. 
ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 12 FT. GALE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO LAST FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE 
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 
28W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY CONTINUE TO 
SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE 
ENVIRONMENT...THUS RESULTING IN NO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SOUTH 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT WIND 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR 
59W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY 
SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND DRY AIR AHEAD 
OF IT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE WAVE 
IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST COVER THE 
ENTIRE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS NEAR 
85W...MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
MODERATE MOISTURE. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE 
GULF OF HONDURAS SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 17N 
BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 
16N16W TO 11N26W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N40W TO 10N51W. ASIDE 
FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE 
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N 
TO 18N E OF 18W AND FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 49W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...                                        

A MIDDLE-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SW TEXAS HAS AN AXIS 
EXTENDING E-SE ACROSS THE N-NW GULF. A TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT WITH A 1011 
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N84W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 
THE LOW W-SW TO 27N90W TO SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. WITH THE 
BASE OF THE MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN 
FLORIDA INTO THE NE BASIN...DIFFLUENCE IS BEING GENERATED. THE 
WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE NE 
BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 25N E 
OF 88W. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE 
BASIN...EXCEPT THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 85.5W WHERE WINDS ARE 
FROM THE SW RANGING FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT. SEAS IN THIS REGION OF 
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT. BY TOMORROW NIGHT...THE 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE INLAND ACROSS THE S-SE CONUS WHILE 
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
NORTHWARD TO HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS WHERE A DIFFLUENT WIND 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SEE TROPICAL 
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEING 
GENERATED BY THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A LOW OVER THE 
SW N ATLC SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 
74W AND 83W. DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN AS 
INDICATED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THIS ALONG WITH 
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. A 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE 
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORT NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 
30 KT FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. 
GALE-FORCE WIND ARE FORECAST IN THIS REGION STARTING 0600 
UTC...THIS MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. A 
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ENTERING THE E BASIN SUNDAY MORNING. 
HOWEVER...STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY.

...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AHEAD OF 
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUNDAY 
MORNING...THUS RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AT THE TIME. DRY AIR IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...      

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CONTINUE TO 
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 28N W OF 71W. SURFACE 
RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...THUS FAVORING 
FAIR WEATHER. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION SEE SECTION ABOVE.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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Page last modified: Sunday, 02-Aug-2015 06:02:50 UTC