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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 031800
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 
12 TO 16 FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR 
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 23W 
FROM 05N TO 16N...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE 
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. 
HOWEVER...THE METEOSAT SAL TRACKING...PSEUDO-NATURAL AND DUST 
IMAGERY SHOW THAT SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS OVER THE WAVE 
ENVIRONMENT...THUS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 39W
...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED 
IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SIMILAR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED 
WAVE...METEOSAT SAL TRACKING...PSEUDO-NATURAL AND DUST IMAGERY 
SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH 
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 66W
...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW AND METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY 
SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG 
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDERS CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N26W AND 
CONTINUES TO 07N36W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N41W TO 
NORTHERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 02N50W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 06N TO 14N E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

N-NE WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NEW 
MEXICO COVERS THE NW GULF AND THE FAR SW BASIN. AN ELONGATED 
UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND PROVIDES A DIFFLUENT 
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SW GULF THAT ALONG WITH MOISTURE INFLOW 
FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
S OF 24N W OF 94W. A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW BASIN SUPPORT 
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N90W TO 18N93W LACKING CONVECTION. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER COASTAL WATERS OF THE 
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING 
ALONG THE EASTERN PENINSULA TO NICARAGUA EPAC COASTAL WATERS. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N E 
OF 87W. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ACROSS THE ATLC OCEAN 
CONTINUE TO EXTENDS AN AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND 
GREAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF. SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT IS OVER 
THE W AND SE GULF WHILE VARIABLE LIGHT WIND PERSISTS OVER THE NE 
BASIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS 
THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS AND ARE 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE 
SPECIAL FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED INLAND CENTRAL 
AMERICA...BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 45 NM OFF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE AND 
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 66W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THIS 
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT S OF 15N THAT 
ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SE BASIN...INCLUDING THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PUERTO RICO 
AND ADJACENT WATERS. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR 
OVER THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE WAVE 
EXTENDING W TO 86W...INCLUDING HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ASIDE THE 
GALE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 
69W AND 82W ASSOCIATED WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE 
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...                                               

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
ISLAND...THUS HINDERING CONVECTION BUT SUPPORTING HAZY 
CONDITIONS. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WHEN 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT 
SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS BEING GENERATED BY THE LOW OVER 
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS UPPER FEATURE 
FAVORS LIFTING OF MOIST AIR ADVECTED FROM THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN 
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 77W. BROAD 
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 18N. A 
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 
30N56W TO 26N53W THAT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FARTHER E FROM 27N43W 
TO 23N43W DEVOID OF CONVECTION. RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE 
ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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Page last modified: Friday, 03-Jul-2015 18:00:27 UTC