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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261752
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE CARIBBEAN WERE
DECREASING BELOW GALE FORCE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N11W AND EXTENDS 
TO 6N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 3N30W TO 4N40W 
TO 6N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 
24W AND 37W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EXTENDS 
SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH 
IS PRODUCING E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN 
GULF AND SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. RETURN 
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS W 
OF 91W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC AND FL 
STRAITS NEAR 24N80W OVER THE GULF TO NEAR 23N83W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. A COLD FRONT WILL 
ENTER THE NW GULF BY SATURDAY EVENING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

TRADEWINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. 
ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT ARE 
OCCURRING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 19N77W WHICH DOMINATES MOST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH SUBSIDENCE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT 
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH TRADE WINDS UP TO 25 KT 
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG AND N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 

HISPANIOLA...                   

SHALLOW MOISTURE UNDER E TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SUPPORTING 
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND TODAY. 
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT 
THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS S TO 31N62W TO 27N75W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A 
STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 24N80W AND ACROSS THE FL 
STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE COLD 
FRONT...AND WITHIN 50 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE OF 1021 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 26N70W. FARTHER EAST...A 
1001 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 33N43W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING SE OF THE LOW TO 31N41W AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 
23N43W. THESE SURFACE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 35N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 29N. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF A LINE FROM 18N38W TO 30N30W. 
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TO NEAR 30N45W TO 22N50W. 
THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



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Page last modified: Friday, 26-Dec-2014 17:52:29 UTC