Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141138
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 10N13W ALONG 6N18W TO 1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS 
CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-41W WHERE IT CONTINUES S 
OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO JUST S OF THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN 3W-10W...FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 22W-36W...AND S OF 
4N W OF 47W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 14/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 
A 1012 MB LOW OVER NE LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N91W ALONG 
27N92W TO JUST S OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND PATCHES OF FOG ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE FRONT. BROAD 
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC 
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERING THE GULF E OF THE FRONT. 
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
REMAIN OVER THE SW GULF WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N86W TO NEAR 
TUXPAN MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY 
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT THEN NE LIFTING N LATE WED. THE NEXT 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT EXTENDING 
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO THU AND FROM THE FLORIDA 
BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT. A SURFACE LOW WILL BRIEFLY 
FORM ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE NW GULF SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W DRAPING A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE W ATLC 
ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 15N74W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 
75 NM SE AND 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE AREA FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 
80W-84W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER 
THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W 
OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND 
COLOMBIA N ACROSS CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC OVER 
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE 
LATER TONIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF 
MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 65W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 31N70W. A 
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N47W ALONG 
26N53W TO 23N59W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS PUERTO RICO 
INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 
DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W 
OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE E ATLC 
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 33N32W ALONG 
21N30W BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS W TO 18N47W SUPPORTING A SURFACE 
LOW WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING 
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N27W TO 27N30W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK 
1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N39W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
FURTHER INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE 
THROUGH THU. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD E ACROSS THE W ATLC 
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE 
NW WATERS TODAY THROUGH TUE WHEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL CLIP WATERS 
N OF 30N LATE TUE AND WED. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE 
NW PART FRI EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY SAT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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PAW