Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 251136
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

7N11W 6N35W 8N44W...INTO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 7N60W. STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 19W AND 
25W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N
BETWEEN 10W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING PUSHED 
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IN THE AREA FROM 10N 
TO 25N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N41W
9N44W 4N46W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO LOUISIANA 
TO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 26N96W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER 
OF THE AREA NEAR 21N96W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT 
PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 
22N...CURVING TO 26N103W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS 
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 92W 
AND THE MEXICO GULF COAST. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. A STATIONARY 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER NORTHEASTWARD TO FLORIDA NEAR 
29N82W AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N78W. A COLD FRONT 
CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 80W
AND 86W. DENSE OVERCAST CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W...IN THE
AREA OF A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN 
COASTAL COLOMBIA TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF NICARAGUA. 
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 18N TO 21N
BETWEEN 83W AND 85W...ARE IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS 
SENDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA 
AND PANAMA TO JAMAICA...AND THEN THE FLOW CURVES EASTWARD ACROSS 
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALREADY IS AFFECTING 
AND HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 
20N BETWEEN 60W AND THE EASTERN U.S.A. COAST. ONE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N60W TO 
24N52W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 29N 
BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
32N44W TO 28N44W TO 15N42W TOWARD THE ITCZ NEAR 10N41W. STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF 30N38W 28N41W 27N45W 25N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS 
ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 43W AND 44W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N39W 
TO 28N50W...TO A SECOND 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 29N53W...BEYOND 32N58W.

$$
MT