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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 190525
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 00N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 04N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W-
43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDS ITS 
ASSOCIATED TROUGH S REACHING THE NW GULF. TO THE E...A BROAD 
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE 
EASTERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REACHING THE E GULF AND 
ADVECTING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. AN AREA OF 
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF PREVAILS BETWEEN THE UPPER 
TROUGH/RIDGE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 27N AND E OF 91W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO 
ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED INLAND 
ALONG THE GULF STATES. LIGHT TO GENTLE SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS 
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH CONVECTION. A WEAK HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS 
THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
AND DRY AIR PREVAILING ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES IS GENERATING 
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN S 
OF 17 AND E OF 70W...AN UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW IS BRINGING MOIST 
AIR INTO THE AREA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES 
ARE OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 
15N BETWEEN 69W-74W...WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE 
DEPICTED. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. 

HISPANIOLA...                                                    

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS 
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING 
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. IT BEGINS AS 
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N81W TO 29N77W 
TO A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N71W. THE STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES E OF THE LOW TO 31N56W TO 25N40W. A COLD FRONT BEGINS 
FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 31N24W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 70W 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W-67W. ASIDE 
FROM THIS...A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N40W EXTENDS 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONTS TO 
WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE UNITED 
STATES COAST AND STALL ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 

ERA


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Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Apr-2015 05:25:52 UTC