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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 222333
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ZONE OF AGADIR ALONG 
THE COAST OF MOROCCO...AND FOR ZONE CANARIAS IN BETWEEN THE 
ISLANDS. BEAUFORT 7 OR 32KT-38KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THESE AREAS. THESE WINDS ARE CAUSED BY 
THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1037 MB HIGH OVER 
THE AZORES AND A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER MOROCCO. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...EXTENDING FROM 
09N26W TO 04N26W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS 
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE WAVE SOUTH OF 08N. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 22W-31W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 06N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N27W AND 
CONTINUES THROUGH 06N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 
02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 02W AND 08W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 03W AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 27W AND 47W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...               

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN 
FROM 29N95W TO 28N83W. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED 
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 24N95W TO 19N96W. 
ISOLATED SPOTTY CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY 
MAINLY W OF 94W. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE E GULF 
CENTERED NEAR 26N87W. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE 
FAR E PORTION OF THE GULF EXTENDING OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA 
SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE 
PENINSULA AND THE KEYS. A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER MOST 
OF THE BASIN EXCEPT N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE A LIGHT TO 
GENTLE FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF 28N BETWEEN 
86W-93W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT AND THE 
SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC 
EXTENDING S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AN 
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTH AMERICA KEEPS A MOIST SW 
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. DAYTIME HEATING AND 
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AFFECTING THEIR ADJACENT WATERS. A 
1008 MB SURFACE LOW PREVAILS OVER N COLOMBIA SUPPORTING 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 11N. LIGHT 
TO GENTLE TRADES WERE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA EXCEPT 
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-80W. EXPECT A 
SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND AS 
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE 
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A 1002 MB LOW LOCATED N OF THE REGION EXTENDS ITS FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY SW ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC...ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY 
FRONT FROM 28N80W TO 31N75W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED 
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY 
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 33N49W AND A 1037 MB HIGH WITH CENTER N OF THE 
AZORES ISLANDS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF MOROCCO BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND A SURFACE 
LOW OVER N AFRICA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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Page last modified: Friday, 22-May-2015 23:33:52 UTC