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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 240556
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS W AFRICA AND PASSES THROUGH COASTAL 
SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 13N16.5W AND ON TO NEAR 08N20W...WHERE 
IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ. THE ITCZ THEN EXTENDS WESTWARD THROUGH 
01N29W TO 00N40W TO COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 01.5S46W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 03S TO 
05N BETWEEN 13W AND 23W...WHILE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED N OF 04N TO WELL INLAND BETWEEN 10W AND 14W...AND N OF THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN 05E AND 04W. ISOLATED MODERATE CELLS WERE 
OCCURRING IN A NARROW LINE FROM 60 TO 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 29W AND 45W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO... 
MILDLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF THIS 
MORNING AS UPPER RIDGING IS SHIFTING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
U.S. AND BROAD TROFFING EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF S-SW 
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC ALONG 
94W. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX CAN BE SEEN IN WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N87.5W AND 
SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND IS BECOMING SEPARATED FROM MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROFFING ACROSS THE NW ATLC. THIS IS YIELDING DRY 
AND GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT N OF 25N. THE UPPER RIDGE 
WILL SHIFT E TO ALONG 80W BY 00Z THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A 
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE ROCKIES TO SHIFT E 
INTO THE MS VALLEY. THIS DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A 
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SE THROUGH TEXAS TODAY...THEN SLOW TONIGHT 
ACROSS SE TEXAS AND NW LOUISIANA. CURRENTLY...A 1015 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED ACROSS THE NE GULF NEAR 27N86.5W...WITH MODERATE SE TO 
S RETURN FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS. THE HIGH WILL 
SHIFT E TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING 
FRONT...AND COLLAPSE. RETURN FLOW ACROSS ALL BUT SE PORTIONS 
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
CONVECTION ACROSS N AND NW COASTAL PORTIONS AS UPPER CONDITIONS 
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE 
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL LATE TONIGHT-EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN COASTS AND COASTAL WATERS ALONG ABOUT 30N...AND 
WEAKEN. 

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES ALL BUT FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE 
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...YIELDING MODEST UPPER CONFLUENCE AND 
MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS PRESENTLY 
CENTERED ACROSS THE NE ATLC AND EXTENDS SW AND WEAKLY TO PUERTO 
RICO AND THE NE CARIBBEAN...MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING. 
THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA...THE ABC ISLANDS 
AND NE COLOMBIA...WHERE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED. ACTIVE DEEP 
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF N COLOMBIA ATTM AND 
SPREADS N INTO THE IMMEDIATE WATERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST. 
AN OLD FRONTAL ZONE PERSISTS FROM THE ATLANTIC W-SW ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA THEN W TO JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N83W. 
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR THE 
BOUNDARY...MOSTLY W OF THE CAYMANS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF 
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER 
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS. 
ADDITIONALLY...A BROAD ZONE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 15N WILL MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE LESSER 
ANTILLES TODAY AND ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT TO 
YIELD WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN OLD FRONTAL ZONE MENTIONED ABOVE...IN THE FORM OF A 
TROUGH...EXTENDS W-SW ACROSS THE N HALF OF HISPANIOLA. TPW 
ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THE BEST MOISTURE IS CONVERGING N OF THIS 
TROUGH AND ACROSS N COASTAL SECTIONS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL 
WATERS TO 21N. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY...BUT 
SUFFICIENT LLVL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH PREVAILING LIGHT TO 
MODERATE E-SE LLVL FLOW TO FOCUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
CONVECTION ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. DUE 
TO A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA...CONDITIONS ARE NOT 
EXPECTED TO BE VERY UNSTABLE...AND ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS 
ARE EXPECTED. LOOKING AHEAD...THE TRAILING END OF A WEAK COLD 
FRONT PASSING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL DRIFT TO 
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL COINCIDE 
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WEAK TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 
LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED SHOWERS AND INLAND THUNDERSTORMS 
BY SUNDAY.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD 
OVER THE NW ATLANTIC...REACHING FROM OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND SE 
TO A BASE NEAR 28N64W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AHEAD OF 
THIS TROUGH AREA INTERACTING WITH A STALLED AND WEAKENING 
FRONTAL ZONE...EXTENDING FROM 31N54W TO NW HAITI...TO PRODUCE AN 
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE 
FRONTAL TROUGH N OF 26N. THE BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ALSO 
SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING BERMUDA AND N PORTIONS 
OF THE AREA...FROM THE NW. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH WAS NOTED BETWEEN 
THESE TWO BOUNDARIES...CENTERED OVER THE SE BAHAMAS. THE NEW 
FRONT WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 25N THROUGH 
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATE RIDGING. THIS WILL INCREASE TRADE 
WIND FLOW S OF 22N W OF 60W THIS WEEKEND. 

FARTHER EAST...THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 
34N30W TO PUERTO RICO AND THE WATERS JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE. 
RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATED MODERATE TRADEWINDS 15-20 KT 
OCCURRING S OF THE RIDGE W OF 30W...AND GENERALLY S OF 18-20N... 
WITH SEAS 8 TO 9 FT AS NOTED BY ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES 
BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE FLOW IS NOTED 
OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS EAST OF 35W TO THE 
COAST OF AFRICA. MINIMAL TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS INHIBITING 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...ALTHOUGH UPPER RIDGING 
ACROSS EQUATORIAL E ATLC AND CENTRAL AFRICA ARE ENHANCING 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS SOUTH OF 10N EAST 
OF 20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
STRIPLING



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Page last modified: Thursday, 24-Apr-2014 05:56:57 UTC