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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271904
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
105 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... 

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 
74W AND 76W UNTIL 1800 UTC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE BACK TO 
GALE FORCE ON 0600 UTC SATURDAY UNTIL 1800 UTC SATURDAY...AND 
AGAIN ON 0600 UTC SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

A GALE CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO...DUE TO A TIGHT 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER 
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE 
METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE 
DETAILS.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 
3S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-4N BETWEEN 1W-
36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO THE AFRICAN COAST E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...           

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS 
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US WITH SW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE GULF. 
A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED 
OVER THE UPPER MID WEST EXTENDS S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE 
GULF. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND THE FL STRAITS 
NEAR 24N81W TO 22N87W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT 
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING S FL. NW WINDS OF 15 
TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS THE ENTIRE FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND 
WILL THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE 
BASIN WHILE DISSIPATING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE 
MAINLY WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

A GALE IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON 
AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 42 HOURS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION 
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. 15-30 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND 
FLOW IS GENERATING PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE 
VIRGIN ISLANDS. DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HAITI...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
MOVING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS 
TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND IN CONTINUED EASTERLY TRADE 
WIND FLOW. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...    

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA OF 
DISCUSSION NEAR 31N70W TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 25N80W...INCLUDING 
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. FARTHER 
EAST...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED 
JUST SE OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND 
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF 
32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER 
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE 
FORCE WINDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. SEE THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE 
FRONT WILL STALL OUT. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO TRANSITION 
TO A SHEAR LINE BY SAT AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND 
THEN THE SHEAR LINE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
LATTO



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Page last modified: Friday, 27-Feb-2015 19:04:55 UTC