000
AXNT20 KNHC 172216
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Apr 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends W from Guinea-Bissau about 60 nm into
the Atlantic. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 01N35W to 02N50W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N
to 09N between 10W and 20W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge centered N of
the Bahamas and lower pressures in Mexico result in fresh to 
locally strong easterly winds offshore the N coasts of Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. 
Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas prevail, except for gentle
winds and seas within 120 nm of the Florida coast. No significant
convection is occurring.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between low pressure over
Mexico and surface ridging extending from the SW N Atlantic 
waters will sustain moderate to fresh SE winds basin-wide through 
Sun morning, except for strong winds ENE winds pulsing off the NW 
Yucatan peninsula and south-central Gulf at night. A cold front is
forecast to move into the NW Gulf Sun afternoon, reach from Tampa
Bay to 25N90W to SW to 22N95W Mon morning and exit the basin Mon 
evening. Moderate to fresh NE winds will follow the front, briefly
reaching strong speeds over the NE Mexico offshore waters Sun 
evening.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge centered north of the Bahamas continues to 
force fresh to locally strong NE-E winds in the lee of Cuba and 
the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are evident in 
the remainder of the basin. No significant convection is present. 

For the forecast, high pressure and associated ridging will shift
E of the SW N Atlantic waters on Sun. This feature will support 
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across the basin, except 
for the SW and NE Caribbean where winds will be gentle to locally 
moderate. Fresh winds in the Windward Passage are forecast to 
reach strong speeds during the evenings today through Fri. Winds 
in the NW and SW Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate 
speeds on Mon as a front enters the SW N Atlantic waters, thus 
diminishing the pressure gradient. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 29N58W to 22N62W and is producing
scattered moderate convection from 21N to 25N between 55W and 61W. 

The remainder of the western Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the 
influence of a 1023 mb high pressure system centered N of the 
Bahamas. This subtropical ridge is forcing moderate to fresh winds
and seas of 5 to 7 ft west of the trough to the Florida Straits 
from 20N to 25N.

The central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge. The pressure gradient between the 1023 mb high
pressure system near 30N45W and lower pressures in the deep 
tropics results in moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south 
of 20N. Wave heights in the area described are 7-10 ft, with the 
highest seas near 11N49W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure and associated ridging will prevail
over the SW N Atlantic waters ENE of the Bahamas through Sun. The
pressure gradient between a surface trough analyzed NE of the 
Leeward Islands and the ridge is supporting moderate to fresh NE 
to E winds E of the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and the 
approaches of the Windward Passage. The trough and possible
developing low will move E of the area Thu morning and winds over
this region will diminish to moderate speeds. Scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are also forecast over the 
aforementioned region through tonight. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds will develop over the Florida offshore waters N of Freeport
on Sun ahead of a cold front forecast to move off NE Florida Sun 
evening. These winds will reach strong speeds Sun night and 
diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Mon. 

$$
Konarik