Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 140547
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 7N15W TO 2N22W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS 
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N E 
OF 9W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 14/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1012 
MB LOW OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N93W ALONG 
28N94W TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
90 NM E OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF 
WATERS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF 
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN 
FLOW COVERING THE GULF E OF THE FRONT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE W GULF NW
OF A LINE FROM 24N88W TO MEXICO NEAR 20N97W LEAVING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE COLD 
FRONT WILL REMAIN N OF 25N AS IT MOVES E THEN NE LIFTING INTO 
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO THU. A SURFACE LOW WILL BRIEFLY FORM 
ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE NW GULF LATE FRI. THE FRONT WILL LIE 
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SAT.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W DRAPING A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE MONA 
PASSAGE WHERE A SHEAR AXIS IS ANALYZED TO 14N81W. REMNANT 
MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF 
A LINE FROM ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N69W TO 
16N75W. REMNANT COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE REMAINDER 
OF THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 11N W OF 80W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE 
E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 
THIS BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND 
COLOMBIA N ACROSS CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC OVER 
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES WILL 
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THOUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF 
MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 68W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N76W. A 
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N50W 
CONTINUING SW ALONG 26N56W TO 21N63W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY 
TO THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 
DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W 
OF THE ENTIRE FRONT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING 
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO 75W. A SECOND BROAD UPPER TROUGH 
DOMINATES THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH AN UPPER 
LOW NEAR 34N33W ALONG 22N31W BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS W TO 16N43W 
SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N28W 
ALONG 30N32W TO 31N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 
25W-29W. A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N39W. SURFACE 
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH MIDWEEK 
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE NW WATERS ON TUE. 
A FRONT WILL CLIP THE W ATLC N OF 30N TUE AND WED. ANOTHER COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW ATLC FRI AFTERNOON AND LIE FROM 
31N75W TO 28N81W SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW