Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 211748

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.


At 21/1800 UTC, Hurricane Maria is located near 20.4N 69.4W or 
about 74 nm ENE of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. The present 
movement of Maria is northwest at 8 kt. The estimated minimum 
central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt 
with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 120 nm
of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center. The eye of Hurricane 
Maria will continue to pass offshore of the northeastern coast of 
the Dominican Republic today. Maria should then move near the 
Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and 
Friday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 21/1800 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 139 nm SE of
Nantucket, Massachusetts near 39.5N 67.9W, stationary. The 
estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained 
winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection
prevails mainly in the NW quadrant of the storm from 38N-43N 
between 70W-74W. Jose is a large system. Tropical-storm-force 
winds extend outward up to 180 nm from the center. Cool waters, 
dry air, and an increase in wind shear should cause Jose to 
steadily weaken and lead to post-tropical transition within the 
next 24 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 19N40W to 07N40W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of 
moderate low to middle level moisture N of 13N, and abundant
moisture S of 13N, as shown by SSMI TPW imagery. A well defined
surface reflection is also noted. Isolated moderate convection is
within 180 nm of the wave axis. 


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 
13N30W to 09N42W. The ITCZ extends from 09N42W to 10N49W to 
09N56W to 10N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the 
tropical wave, widely scattered moderate convection is occurring 
off of the coast of Africa from 05N-11N E of 24W.



A 1021 mb high is centered over N Alabama near 34N87W. Surface
ridging is over the N Gulf of Mexico N of 26N. A very small low is
over the central Gulf near 25N88W, depicted by a swirl of low
clouds, and scattered showers within 90 nm of the center.
Elsewhere, radar imagery shows scattered showers along the coast
of Texas, and over the W Gulf W of 94W. More scattered showers are
over portions of SE florida. Surface winds over most of the Gulf 
are only 5-10 kt. The Bay of Campeche has some 15 kt winds. In 
the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over the SW Gulf
near 21N95W. The base of an upper level trough is over the NE 
Gulf. Expect the surface low to dissipate over the next 12 hours.


The core of Hurricane Maria is over Atlc waters NE of eastern
Dominican Republic, however tropical storm winds still reach a
portion of NW Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over Puerto Rico, while numerous strong convection
is over the Mona Passage and the Dominican Republic. Puerto Rico
continues to have localized flooding. See the special features 
section for further details. Strong winds and high seas associated
with Maria prevail in the NE Caribbean mainly N of 16N. The 
eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough extends across Costa 
Rica, Panama through Colombia supporting isolated showers and 
tstms in the SW Caribbean S of 12N. Of note in the upper
levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean with
axis from central Cuba near 22N79W to central Honduras near 
14N86W. Some scattered showers are Just E of the trough axis due 
to upper level diffluence. Expect winds and seas associated with 
Maria to gradually diminish through Friday as the cyclone moves 
farther NW over the SW N Atlc waters.


A hurricane warning prevails for portions of the northern 
Dominican Republic while a tropical storm warning is in effect for
Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and 
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4-6 feet 
above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the 
Dominican Republic, and 1-3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts
of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC 
Forecast/Advisory. Numerous strong convection is occurring over 
the Dominican Republic spreading across the rest of the Island as 
Maria continues to move NW over SW N Atlc waters.


Please refer to Special Features section for more information on 
Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. A 1012 mb low, the 
remnants of Lee, is located near 19N48W. A surface trough extends
N from the low to 25N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 21N-25N between 45W-49W. The remainder of the basin remains 
under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high centered north 
of the area. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level low
is centered near 24N49W. Scattered moderate convection is NE of
this center from 27N-31N between 39W-45W due to upper level

For additional information please visit 


Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 21-Sep-2017 17:49:23 UTC