Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 280154


805 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.


Tropical Depression Two is centered near 28.5N 74.7W at 27/2100
UTC, or about 378 NM SE of Charleston South Carolina moving WNW
at 11 KT.  Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 MB.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 KT with gusts to 40 KT.  Some
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight
or on Saturday.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect
for...Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina.
Presently scattered moderate convection is from 28N-31N between
73W-76W.  Please see the latest intermediate public advisory
under AWIPS/WMO header MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC, and the full
forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO header MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details. 


A tropical wave is over the far eastern tropical Atlantic
extending from 15N19W to 05N20W moving west at 15 kt. The wave
has a well-defined 700 mb trough axis as seen in the GFS
analysis, and rawindsondes over West Africa.  The wave is
embedded in a moderate moist environment from the surface to 850
mb, according to CIRA layer precipitable water.  Enhanced
Meteosat imagery shows dust in the northern wave environment,
thus limiting the convection to scattered moderate from 5N-8N
between 19W-22W.

A tropical wave is over the west tropical Atlantic extending
from 13N55W to 05N54W, moving west at 20-25 kt over the past 24
hours.  This wave has become difficult to track and is weakly
apparent in the SUNY-Albany tropical wave diagnostics at 700 mb.
No deep convection is present currently associated with the wave.

A tropical wave is located in the eastern Caribbean extending
from 16N68W to 08N68W, moving west at 20-25 kt over the past 24
hours.  The wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment
from the surface to 850 mb.  Scattered showers are within 120
nm of the axis.  


The Monsoon Trough extends across the tropical Atlantic starting
near 09N14W to 06N21W. The ITCZ begins near 06N21W and continues
to 05N43W.  An area of scattered moderate to strong convection
is inland over western Africa due to the monsoon trough from 09N-
14N between 04W-16W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is
along the coast of South America from 2N-7N between 48W-53W due
to the ITCZ.  



An outflow boundary is over western Louisiana and eastern Texas.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 29N-34N between
92W-97W.   Further south, clusters of scattered moderate to
strong convection is along the coast of Mexico from 18N-26N
between 96W-100W.  Surface ridging is over the NE Gulf of
Mexico, while a 1000 mb low is centered over central Mexico near
25N123W.  The surface pressure gradient tightens over the
western Gulf, thus 20-25 kt southerly winds are over the NW
Gulf.  The remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt SE winds.  Radar
imagery shows scattered showers over central and south Florida.
Fair weather is over the remainder of the Gulf.  In the upper
levels, the base of a trough is over Texas and the far NW Gulf.
Elsewhere, an upper level low is centered over the N Bahamas
near 26N78W. Expect over the next 24 hours for an increase of
convection over South Florida.  


A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 68W.  See
above.  The remainder of the Caribbean has 10-15 kt tradewinds.
Presently scattered moderate convection is inland over Panama
and Costa Rica. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the
eastern Caribbean east of 74W. In the upper levels the base of
an upper level trough is along 75W. Upper level diffluence east
of the axis is enhancing the showers over the eastern Caribbean. 
Expect little change over the next 24 hours. 


Presently scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are over
the island.  Expect more convection over the next 24 hours due
to the tropical wave and the upper level trough.


See Special Features section above for details on Tropical
Depression Two.  Over the central Atlantic a 1023 mb high is
centered near 28N49W.  A weak 1019 low is centered near 27N26W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the center. Another weak
1017 mb low is centered over the eastern Atlantic near 27N28W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the center.  Of note in
the upper levels, upper level diffluence southeast of the N
Bahamas upper level low is producing scattered moderate
convection north of Hispaniola from 20N-27N between 64W-72W. 

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Page last modified: Saturday, 28-May-2016 01:55:04 UTC