Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 220615 AAA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AMENDED IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE 22/0600 UTC POSITION FOR TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION NINE...AND FOR THE FORECAST FOR HISPANIOLA

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AT 22/0600 UTC...NEAR 19.4N 92.6W. THIS 
POSITION IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMPECHE IN 
MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING EAST OR 90 DEGREES 5 KNOTS. THE 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. 
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER 
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. 
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER 
WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE MEXICO 
COAST TO 21N BETWEEN THE MEXICO COAST AND 93W...IN THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA FROM 20N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD...AND FROM 19N TO 
22N BETWEEN 80W AND 89W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/THE NORTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... INCLUDING TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N32W 9N34W 4N35W. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG IN THE ITCZ FROM 3N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W. THIS WAVE 
WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE SURFACE ANALYSIS BASED ON SATELLITE 
HOVMOLLER ANALYSIS AND UNIVERSITY OF ALBANY EASTERLY WAVE 
DIAGNOSTICS. 

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N54W 11N56W 7N57W... 
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W...AND FROM 
16N TO 18N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N18W TO 
7N28W 10N33W 7N45W AND 12N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 21W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD 
BETWEEN 21W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE 
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND COVERING PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE 
GULF OF HONDURAS...TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... 
TO 28N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 
240 NM TO 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 
32N68W 26N78W...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W... IN THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE 
SOUTH OF 29N80W 28N90W 26N97W...FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO 
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE 
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS/THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF MEXICO.

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. A STATIONARY 
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO 
28N82W IN FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE 
COASTAL AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS/THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER 
OF MEXICO.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR 
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 32N73W...
28N85W...BEYOND 32N95W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KATP. 

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE 
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED AT 
PERRY FLORIDA. 

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND IT 
CONTINUES HEADING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA AND 
VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD...THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EVENTUALLY INTO THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN. 

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 
22/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.11 IN 
CURACAO. 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N74W ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA...TO 11N80W...ACROSS NICARAGUA INTO NORTHWESTERN 
HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD. NUMEROUS 
STRONG IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING ON TOP 
OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN/ 
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS-TO-ATLANTIC OCEAN 
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS DESCRIBED IN THE GULF 
OF MEXICO SECTION. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS 
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MONA PASSAGE BETWEEN 
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO. 

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL 
CLOUDS...ARE BEING REPORTED AT OBSERVING SITES THAT ARE AROUND 
THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW 
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE CURRENT 
RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN 
EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL COVER 
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. 

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 28N53W. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N55W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 27N55W LOW CENTER TO 33N54W.  A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N51W 23N46W 18N38W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 
NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N38W 23N46W 27N49W...AND 
ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 33N29W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N 
NORTHWARD...BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER IS NEAR 33N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 33N28W 
LOW CENTER TO 28N30W AND 24N33W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE TO THE 
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE 1000 MB LOW CENTER. PLEASE READ THE 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 22W AND 31W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Oct-2014 06:15:26 UTC