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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 030530
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 
4N20W TO 3N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 3N25W TO 3N33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S48W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 18W-
24W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 42W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 29N86W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE 
GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE LATEST GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY 
IMAGERY SHOWS IFR CONDITIONS INLAND W OF TAMPICO MEXICO... BUT 
NOT OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS 
THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE 
TO NORTH CAROLINA PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE 
GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

AS OF 0300 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 
21N77W TO NE NICARAGUA AT 15N83W TO S NICARAGUA AT 11N85W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR...W 
HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 86W-91W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 4N-
8N BETWEEN 73W-78W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT 
THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE ISLAND. 
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MOSTLY OVER HAITI DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVER E CUBA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N60W 
TO E CUBA AT 21N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
24N51W. ANOTHER 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
NEAR 27N27W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A 
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 
20N55W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR 
THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 31N52W WITH MORE SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
FORMOSA


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Page last modified: Sunday, 03-May-2015 05:30:28 UTC