Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 180531

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1231 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.


...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong cold front continues to move across the Gulf region. The
front extends from a 1014 mb low pressure centered near 33N77W 
and continues southwest across central Florida into the Gulf of 
Mexico to near 26N82W to 22N91W to 19N92W. Gale-force winds are 
occurring to the west of the front mainly south of 21N and west of
94W. Seas of 12-16 ft will prevail within the area of gale-force 
winds. The front will continue moving southeast across the 
southern portion of the basin through the night, with winds 
weakening below warning criteria at 0600 UTC. Please read the 
latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters 
Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

The low pressure currently located east of the South Carolina's 
coast will continue moving eastward into the western Atlantic 
Ocean while deepening. This will induce an area of gale-force 
winds today mainly north of 30N and behind the strong cold front 
that is currently moving across the west Atlantic along and west 
of 76W. The front will extend from 31N69W to eastern Cuba today, 
then weaken southeast of the Bahamas from 24N65W to the Windward 
Passage on Friday. Strong high pressure behind the front will 
bring strong winds and high seas tot he area northeast of the 
Bahamas through tonight. Please read the latest NHC High Seas 
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the 
latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, for 
more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 07N11W to
03N18W. The ITCZ begins near 03N18W to 00N34W to 03N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within about 120 nm on either side
of the monsoon trough, while scattered showers prevail within 50
nm to the north of the ITCZ.



A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf region. See the 
Special Features section for more details. A surface ridge 
dominates the majority of the basin in the wake of the front.  
Aside from the area with gale-force winds, scatterometer data
depicts fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the basin.
Winds will slightly weaken as the front and pressure gradient 
relaxes across the basin through through the next 24 hours. Fresh
to locally strong southerly flow will set-up again across the 
western Gulf and persist early this weekend ahead on the next 
cold front forecast to reach the Texas coast by Sunday night.


The remnants of a stationary front were analyzed as a surface
trough that extends across the western Caribbean from 19N85W to
12N82W. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms
are noted west of 80W with this trough affecting the Cayman 
Islands and western Cuba. Patches of low-level moisture carried by
the trade wind flow are seen across the remainder of the 
Caribbean Sea inducing showers. Moderate to fresh northeast winds 
are seen in the lee of Cuba, and within about 60 nm of the coast 
of Nicaragua. Fresh to strong winds are near the coast of 
Colombia. The cold front currently moving across the Gulf of 
Mexico will reach the northwest Caribbean this morning, then 
extend from central Cuba to Honduras by tonight. Fresh to strong 
winds and widespread showers are expected behind the front. Strong
trade winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia coast on Friday
night and then expand across much of the central Caribbean over 
the weekend as high pressure builds north of the area.


Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated 
showers will prevail for the next day or so over the island due 
to the influence of a ridge. Computer models show an increasing of  
moisture across Hispaniola toward the end of the work-week as a 
cold front approaches from the west. Fresh northeast winds are 
expected across the Windward Passage today through Saturday night
as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic in the wake 
of the above mentioned front.


A strong cold front is moving across the west Atlantic from 31N77W
to 28N80W. See the Special Features section for more details
about this front and the Gale Warning in effect. To the east, a 
forming cold front has developed extending from a 1014 mb surface 
low near 34N73W to 24N75W. Scattered showers are noted in the 
vicinity of these features mainly west of 70W. A surface trough 
extends from 30N65W to 25N65W with minimal convection at this 
time. An upper-level low is reflected at the surface as a trough
that extends from 31N50W to a 1021 mb low near 28N47W to 21N43W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N between 36W- 
46W. The strong high pressure near Azores dominates most of the 
east and central Atlantic, and will move little through this 

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Page last modified: Thursday, 18-Jan-2018 05:31:41 UTC