Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 180004

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0000 UTC.


...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong cold front continues to move across the Gulf region. The
front extends from a 1020 mb low pressure centered over the South
Carolina's coast and continues southwest across northern Florida 
into the Gulf of Mexico to near 28N83W to 24N89W to 19N93W. Gale 
force winds are occurring west of the front mainly south of 26N 
based on the latest scatterometer pass. A recent altimeter pass 
indicates seas of 16-18 ft within the area of gale force winds. 
The front will continue moving south of the basin tonight. Gale 
force winds are expected west of the front along the coast of 
Mexico near Veracruz through tonight. Fresh to strong northerly 
winds are also expected elsewhere behind the front through 
tonight. High pressure behind the front will slowly shift eastward
along the US Gulf coast through Friday. Please read the latest 
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 
KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, 
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

The low pressure currently located over the South Carolina's coast 
will move eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean while 
deepening. This will induce an area of gale-force winds north of 
30N on Thursday behind the strong cold front that is currently 
moving off the northern Florida coast. The front will extend from
31N69W to eastern Cuba on Thursday, then weaken southeast of the 
Bahamas from 24N65W to the Windward Passage on Friday. Strong 
high pressure behind the front will bring strong winds and high 
seas northeast of the Bahamas through Thursday night. Please read
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters 
Forecast, MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, for more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Sierra Leone,
Africa and continues to 01N21W. The ITCZ extends from 01N21W to 
02N40W to the Equator at 50W. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed within about 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 30W-40W.
Similar convection is from 03N-04.5N between 42W-47W.



A strong cold front is moving across the Gulf region. See the 
Special Features section for more details. A band of multi-layer 
clouds with embedded showers is associated with the front followed
by cold air stratocumulus clouds forming parallel to the wind.
Cold air has penetrated into the eastern slopes of the Sierra
Mountains as depicted by a rather uniform stratus cover and 
stationary front is analyzed along the leading edge of this
cloudiness. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters. 
Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will set- up across the 
western Gulf by Fri, and persist on Saturday ahead on the next 
cold front forecast to reach the Texas coast Sun night.


A dissipating stationary front remains across the basin extending
from eastern Cuba to near 17N80W. Abundant cloudiness with
embedded showers and tstms are noted over the NW Caribbean and a
surface trough is analyzed there extending from 21N86W to 15N82W.
According to the Galvez-Davison Index (GDI), there is a potential
for widespread shallow convection across the NW Caribbean and 
parts of Nicaragua and Honduras today. Abundant moisture will 
persist over this area through Thursday based on the GFS model. 
Patches of low-level moisture carried by the trade wind flow are 
seen across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh 
NE winds are seen in the lee of Cuba, and within about 60 nm of 
the coast of Nicaragua. Fresh to strong winds are near the coast 
of Colombia. The cold front currently moving across the Gulf of 
Mexico will reach the NW Caribbean tonight, then extend from 
central Cuba to Honduras on Thursday. Fresh to strong winds and 
widespread showers are expected behind the front through Thursday 
night. Strong trade winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia 
coast Fri night and then expand across much of the central 
Caribbean over the weekend as high pressure builds N of area.


Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated 
showers will prevail for the next day or so over the island due 
to the influence of a ridge. Computer models show increasing 
moisture across Hispaniola toward the end of the work-week as a 
cold front approaches from the west. Fresh NE winds are expected 
across the Windward Passage Thursday through Saturday night as 
high pressure builds across the western Atlantic in the wake of 
the above mentioned front.


A weakening stationary front extending from 31N66W to eastern 
Cuba will dissipate later tonight. A strong cold front is moving
off the Florida coast at this time and will be extending from 
31N69W to eastern Cuba by Thursday, then weaken SE of the Bahamas 
from 24N65W to the Windward Passage on Friday. See Special 
Features section for more details. An upper-level low is 
reflected at the surface as a trough that extends from 31N46W to 
24N47W. Scattered showers and tstms are associated with this 
low/trough covering mainly the waters N of 28N between 42W-45W. An
area of fresh to strong E-SE winds in noted E of the trough due 
to the pressure gradient between the trough and a 1036 mb high 
pressure located near the Azores at 40N25W. The trough will drift 
westward over the next 24 hours. The strong high pressure near 
Azores dominates most of the east and central Atlantic, and will 
move little through Thursday. 

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Page last modified: Thursday, 18-Jan-2018 00:05:08 UTC