AXNT20 KNHC 231030
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A cold front across the western Gulf extends from Mobile Alabama
to Tampico Mexico. The front will sweep across the remainder of
the Gulf through early Tuesday with gale force northerly winds
expected to develop S of 21N W of 95W later this morning as the
pressure gradient tightens. Please see the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
A tropical wave extends from 17N51W to 06N53W, moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing and a maximum in 850 mb
relative vorticity east of the wave axis. Scattered moderate
convection is from 09N-15N between 42W-52W, and enhanced by a
mid-level trough along 60W.
A tropical wave is moving across Central America along 90W south
of 21N, and moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb
troughing and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the
wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-19N between
The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 11N17W to
07N24W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N
GULF OF MEXICO...
A vigorous middle to upper level trough moving into the SE U.S.
supports the cold front mentioned above. A pre-frontal trough
extends from 27N88W to 21N90W. Low-level moisture convergence
and mid-level divergence is generating scattered showers and
isolated tstms across the eastern Gulf N of 25N E of the front.
The cold front is expected to sweep across the remainder of the
basin through Tuesday with fresh to strong northerly winds
spreading eastward in wake of the front. Strong high pressure
will move into the western Gulf Wednesday night.
The combination of a tropical wave along 90W and favorable upper
level winds over the W Caribbean supports scattered showers and
isolated tstms W of a line from the Yucatan Channel near 22N86W
to northern Colombia near 11N74W...including Central America.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail over most of the W Caribbean,
and fresh to strong trades prevail E of 75W from the pressure
gradient associated with high pressure in the western N Atlc.
Dry air and NW flow aloft will support fair weather across the
island today. Fresh to strong trades expected to become moderate
to occasionally fresh on Tuesday.
A stationary front extends into the discussion area from 32N42W
to 27N56W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 150
nm of the frontal boundary. The front will dissipate later today
south of 30N. An upper level low is centered near 25N64W. Random
showers are from 22N-30N between 60W-66W in association with the
upper level low. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere
north of the convergence zone and east of the tropical wave
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