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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 251738
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT WITHIN 75 NM NW OF A 1004 MB LOW 
LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO A WARM FRONT AND THEN TO THE 
LOW WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS CUBA 
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SECTIONS 
BELOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE 
EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                           
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 
16N44W TO 6N44W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI 
TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 37W AND 50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO S OF 10N WITHIN 
200 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N53W TO 
8N53W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW AND 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. OTHER CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE E OF S 
AMERICA ALONG 10 N IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N72W TO 
11N73W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS 
AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A 
DRY ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
OCCURRING MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES THROUGH 10N19W TO 8N23W WHERE THE 
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH 7N30W TO 6N40W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 15W AND 19W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 
34W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE 
NORTHEASTERN GULF...COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. 1022 MB SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NE MEXICO...E TEXAS...AND 
LOUISIANA IS PROVIDING COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. N TO NE 
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN WITH N 
TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. 
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING THE ENTIRE BASIN CONVECTION 
FREE. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF WITH 
PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF. 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE 
NORTHERN GULF WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE W ATLANTIC. 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REPLACE THE TROUGH IN THE GULF WITH 
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.                            

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DIGGING INTO THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CUBA INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN AT 22N80W TO 19N84W. THE COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A 
STATIONARY FRONT AT 19N84W AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF BELIZE 
NEAR 17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 50 NM NW OF THE 
FRONTS. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA...ACROSS E CUBA...AND INTO THE W 
ATLANTIC. TO THE S AND E OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SUBSIDENCE 
AND DRY AIR IS HELPING TO LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SMALL UPPER LEVEL 
LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N58W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND E 
CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL LOSE ITS CHARACTERISTICS AS IT APPROACHES 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W 
CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL 
APPROACH THE WINWARD ISLANDS SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. 

HISPANIOLA...     

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY AIR IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER 
ACROSS THE ISLAND. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO THE NW OF THE ISLAND. THIS 
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS SUPPORTING A 1004 MB 
SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N73W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND 
OVER CUBA NEAR 22N79W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE LOW TO NEAR 
28N64W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N64W TO 31N58W. 
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 130 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE LOW W 
OF 71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM NE OF THE COLD FRONT 
AND LOW CENTER. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. 
A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 29N30W DRIFTING SE. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA WHILE THE 
COLD FRONT SHIFTS E TO NEAR 30N60W AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF 
THE FRONT STALLS OUT NEAR E CUBA. ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BE 
LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTS. THE FRONTS WILL DISSIPATE 
EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE 
W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



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Page last modified: Saturday, 25-Oct-2014 17:39:13 UTC