AXNT20 KNHC 010605
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 01 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical wave in the eastern Tropical Atlantic extends along 26W
from 2N-11N moving west near 20 kt. Wave is engulfed by Saharan
dry air and dust, which is hindering deep convection.
Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic along 51W from 4N-
13N moving west near 20 kt. Wave is embedded within a surge of
deep moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 5N-10N between 50W and 55W.
Tropical wave is E of the Windward Islands with axis along 61W
moving west near 15 kt. Wave is embedded within a surge of deep
moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 7N-10N between 55W and 61W.
Tropical wave over Central America with axis along 85W moving
west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
and thunderstorms are affecting southern Honduras, NW Nicaragua,
Costa Rica and Panama.
The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N16W to east of a tropical wave near 4N23W. The
ITCZ begins west of the tropical wave near 3N26W and then
continues along 2N40W to South America near 2N51W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 NM either
side of the ITCZ between 25W-42W. Clusters of scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection are from 5N-10N E of 15W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Weak surface high pressure prevails across the central and
eastern Gulf being anchored by a 1015 mb high near 27N84W while
low pressure along Mexico extends to the western Gulf. Gentle
variable wind is E of 90W while SE gentle to moderate winds
dominate W of 90W. At the middle to upper levels, ridging
covering the Gulf and a trough over the SE CONUS with base
extending S into the Caribbean generate a diffluent environment
that support scattered moderate convection N of 25N W of 93W.
Surface ridging will persist through Thursday.
The upper trough over the SE CONUS extends across Florida and
then S into the Caribbean W of 70W. A low amplitude upper ridge
extends N from South America and cover the remainder of the
Caribbean. A diffluent environment between this two features
aloft support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
portions of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and adjacent waters,
including the Mona and Windward passages. Scattered to isolated
showers are over the remainder central and eastern basin.
Similar shower activity is over the SW Caribbean S of 13N being
supported by the E Pacific monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh
trade winds are across the eastern basin while light and to
moderate trades are W of 75W. Over the S Central Caribbean, the
latest scatterometer data show fresh to strong winds S of 14N
between 65W and 74W. Winds are expected to increase between
Colombia and Jamaica on Wednesday night then expanding across
the west Caribbean toward Cuba by the weekend.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are across Hispaniola
adjacent waters while isolated showers are likely across the
island. This activity is driven by moisture in the region and a
diffluent environment aloft. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue through the week.
An upper trough over the SE CONUS covers the SW N Atlantic with
a narrow upper ridge to the east. The diffluent area between
these upper features is generating scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms from 18N-28N between 65W-72W. An upper trough in
the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front that enters
the east Atlantic near 30N27W and extends along 26N36W to 26N43W
where it becomes stationary to 29N53W. A pre-frontal trough
extends from 27N31W along 25N40W to 25N47W. The remainder of the
Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb
high near 34N48W. A weak surface ridge will build from Bermuda
to northeast Florida tonight through Thursday.
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