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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 250526
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 8N13W TO 4N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 
2N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 1W-
14W AND FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 36W-42W AND W OF 46W 
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE 
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC. A REMNANT WARM 
FRONT REMAINS OVER THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM 28N84W TO INLAND 
OVER LOUISIANA NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI 
BORDER. A SEABREEZE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA 
BUT IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND OVER THE 
FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR 
SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF. 
THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT N AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A WEAK 
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 
SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MON 
MORNING AND STALL ALONG 28N BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM 
FRONT LATE MON NIGHT.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 
18N83W COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN AND EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES 
TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN 
TONIGHT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIED OUT OVER CUBA 
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO 
RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY 
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE GULF 
OF HONDURAS THROUGH MON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...                                                    
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 
AND E HAITI BETWEEN 70W-73W. THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OFFICE OF 
METEOROLOGY IS FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. THESE 
TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINOUS 
TERRAIN GIVING THE AREA OF W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E HAITI 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W 
ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 29N W OF 73W 
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 32N78W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH 
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND INTO THE NW ATLC DIPS SE OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N SUPPORTING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS. 
THE LEADING FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 32N52W AND 
EXTENDS ALONG 27N56W TO 25N62W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A 
STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM 
SE OF THE FRONT E OF 58W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE 
REGION NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDS ALONG 31N62W 30N68W TO 27N72W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF 
THE FRONT BETWEEN 61W-68W. THE TRAILING FRONT IS JUST N OF THE 
REGION AND EXTENDS TO 32N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 59W-67W. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE 
E/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE 
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N32W AND EXTENDS ALONG 29N35W TO 30N41W 
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT TO THE 1010 MB LOW NEAR 
32N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT 
COVERS THE AREA S OF 30N E OF 60W AND ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH 
NEAR 24N28W. THE LEADING CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS 
IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SECOND FRONT WILL REACH 
FROM 32N59W NEAR 28N65W TO 26N72W EARLY ON SAT AND WEAKEN AS IT 
MOVES ACROSS THE FAR S WATERS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES SAT 
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL STAY JUST N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW 
WATERS EARLY MON AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA 
MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW

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Page last modified: Saturday, 25-Apr-2015 05:26:56 UTC