Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141759
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 
02N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
02N21W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W AND THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 40W 
TO 01S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 46W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH 
AXIS ALONG 86W EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA TO OVER 
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE 
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE OVERALL...AT THE 
SURFACE A WEAK 1013 LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 
NEAR 32N90W WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THEN 
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 30N89W TO 27N93W THEN CONTINUING AS A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 
BROWNSVILLE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF 
THE COLD FRONT...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. 
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE SE CONUS THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT BECOMING MORE 
DIFFUSE WITH TIME. HINTS OF ESTABLISHING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW 
ARE ALREADY EVIDENT IN SHIP...BUOY...AND OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS 
ACROSS THE NW GULF AS WINDS W OF 94W ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE S-SE. 
FARTHER SE...OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED 
BY A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE SW GULF NEAR 21N94W. BY 
WEDNESDAY...THE S-SE WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE NEXT COLD FRONT 
FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST LATE 
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY SHIFTING WINDS N-NE WEST OF THE 
FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER 
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW TO 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. W OF 80W...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES 
MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC FROM 
18N52W TO 10N65W WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING 
OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH...AN ATLANTIC FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS TO 19N64W WITH 
THE EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUING S-SW AS A SHEAR LINE 
ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO TO 17N70W TO 15N80W. WEAK LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHEAR LINE IS 
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-20N 
BETWEEN 61W-76W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE 
MONA PASSAGE. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 14/1502 UTC 
INDICATED STRONGER E-NE WINDS NORTH OF THE SHEAR AXIS BETWEEN 
67W-74W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W THAT EXTENDS SW TO 
24N58W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 19N64W AND INTO THE NORTH 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AS A SHEAR LINE. WIDELY SCATTERED 
RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY E-NE. WEST OF 
THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...HIGH 
PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 
31N68W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR 
WEATHER NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. FARTHER 
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH 
THE EXCEPTION OF AN EMBEDDED 1023 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N34W 
THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING AND BECOME ABSORBED 
INTO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN