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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 020528
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 02/0300 UTC...THE LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE 
CENTER IS NEAR 21.0N 93.9W...HOLDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
OF 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 
KT. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WNW AT 09 KT AND THIS 
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A 
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED TSTMS IS FROM 19N-
22N BETWEEN 92W-95W. ISOLATED CONVECTION EXTENDS TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO  
APPROACH THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEE THE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AROUND 200 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS 
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N28W TO 07N28W...MOVING WEST AT 10 
KT. ENHANCED METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF 
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR SURROUNDING THIS WAVE WHICH IS LIMITING 
THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 26W-
31W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 19N44W TO 10N49W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. SAHARAN DUST AND 
DRY AIR IS ALSO SURROUNDING THIS WAVE. ISOLATED CONVECTION 
CONTINUES S OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 48W-50W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 19N61W TO 10N61W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SOME DRY 
SAHARAN AIR IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN ITS SOUTHERN 
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING A FEW CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 61W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 22N71W TO 10N72W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STRONG 
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING DEEP 
CONVECTION. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W 
AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N20W TO 07N27W TO 06N35W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 06N35W TO 10N48W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 07N58W. 
THE ONLY CONVECTION PRESENT NEAR THESE FEATURES ARE RELATED TO 
THE TROPICAL WAVES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE 
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. 

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CONTINUES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE W FLORIDA COAST GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NE GULF 
WATERS...MAINLY ALONG 83W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH 
IS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT OVER THE SE GULF. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR THE SW 
GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT 
PREVAILS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL FEATURES 
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK 
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. A 
TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP 
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR PREVAILS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE 
BASIN HINDERING THE FORMATION OF DEEP CONVECTION. PLEASE SEE THE 
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 10-15 
KT SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE 
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE 
BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...                                         

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND...HOWEVER STRONG 
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR PREVAILS ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH 
IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME 
HEATING AND SOME ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY LEFT BY THE TROPICAL 
WAVE PASSAGE. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS 
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SOUTH OF 28N BETWEEN 
72W-80W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH 
ANALYZED FROM 29N48W TO 27N51W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER 
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 02-Sep-2014 05:28:13 UTC