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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 080604 AAA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC STORM WARNING...A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 986 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 33N75W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW TO 30N67W SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND EAST OF IT SUPPORTS STORM-FORCE WINDS N
OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE HAPPENING N OF
27N W OF THE FRONT TO 78W AND E OF THE FRONT TO 67W. SEAS IN THE
AREA OF STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 16 TO 22 FT AND FROM
12 TO 17 FT IN THE GALE-FORCE WINDS REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW STORM-FORCE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES
NE...HOWEVER GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
IT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE SW N ATLC AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 29N W OF 77W. GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL IN THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN
THE BASIN AND GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP N OF THE
FRONT E OF 90W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
TUE MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N10W
TO 03N15W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N31W TO
01S46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N-02N BETWEEN 20W-
24W AND FROM 05S TO 03N W OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 25N92W COVERS
THE ENTIRE BASIN AND PROVIDES VARIABLE LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND
FLOW. WATER VAPOR...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE
UPPER LEVELS ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE...WHICH IS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES WILL DISSIPATE IN THE
WESTERN GULF LATER THIS MORNING AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN
WATERS DURING MON NIGHT HOURS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP W OF THE FRONT E OF 90W MON NIGHT...CONTINUING TO TUE
MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...      

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 986 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N75W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO 30N67W
SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO 20N76W
TO 16N81W TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 11N83W.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 19N TO
87W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S
OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE. A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED SW OF HISPANIOLA
AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROVIDE STABILITY ACROSS THE
REGION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING WHERE IT WILL
STALL AND START DISSIPATING TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...                                          

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER EASTERN CUBA WILL MOVE TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATER THIS
MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL THROUGH TUE. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING MON AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 986 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 33N75W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
TO 30N67W SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST AND EAST OF IT SUPPORTS STORM-FORCE WINDS N OF 29N BETWEEN
70W AND 77W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE HAPPENING N OF 27N W OF THE
FRONT TO 78W AND E OF THE FRONT TO 67W. SEAS IN THE AREA OF
STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 16 TO 22 FT AND FROM 12 TO 17
FT IN THE GALE-FORCE WINDS REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
STORM-FORCE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES NE...HOWEVER
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TO NEAR 60W MON NIGHT...STALLING S
OF 23N AND OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE SW N ATLC LATE MON NIGHT...GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS