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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 171736
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP S OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST TONIGHT...INTENSIFY AND MOVE TO NEAR 29N88W BY EARLY FRI.
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED OVER THE FAR NE GULF WATERS WITHIN 60 
IN THE NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER FOR WINDS OF 30-35 KT. FOR 
ADDITIONAL DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES THROUGH 2N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W THE CONTINUES TO 
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3S 
BETWEEN 20W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED S OF 3N
BETWEEN 27W-45W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS IS 
ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG 
AND TO THE N OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM 
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR NAPLES THROUGH 26N87W TO 25N94W. THE 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED TO THE AREA WEST OF 90W. AN INCREASE
IN LIGHTNING STRIKES WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 27.5N91W
TO 25N94W. THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND RESULT
IN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED TOMORROW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 
60 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY 1200 UTC FRI. THIS LOW WILL 
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW MOVES NE INTO 
THE SW N ATLANTIC. REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GULF A BROAD FLAT RIDGE PREVAILED MAINLY E OF 90W WITH COPIUS AMOUNTS 
OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD OVER THE BASIN. 
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING 
FROM 24N91W TO 18N94W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY 
A 1042 MB HIGH OVER MAINE WAS SHIFTING E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW N ATLANTIC. A DOWNSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH CLIPPED THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS. FAIR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM S OF HAITI AND 
JAMAICA ALONG 75W...AND ANOTHER CLUSTER EXTENDING FROM MARTINIQUE
TO ANTIGUA AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED 
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS...15-20 KT FOCUSED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A 
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING OVER OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS 
IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS DAYTIME HEATING IS NEAR A MAXIMUM. THE UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC WILL 
SHIFT E THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE 
ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUN.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A FLATTENING MID-UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS 
INTO THE FAR NW ATLC N OF 27N ALONG 75W IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA FROM 32N72W THROUGH 28N76W TO THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST NEAR PALM BEACH TO NAPLES. ISOLATED AREAS OF SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER SE FLORIDA IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. 
THE FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY FRI NIGHT AS SURFACE 
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI MOVES INTO THE FAR NW CORNER 
OF THE AREA AND DRAGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
NEAR 37N52W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE AZORES THROUGH 
32N37W TO 25N55W AND WAS DIGGING SOUTHWARD E OF A NARROW RIDGE AXIS 
ALONG 65W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTED A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT 
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N19W AND EXTENDS TO 24N28W. A POST-FRONTAL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO 25N40W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE 
VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
COBB


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Page last modified: Thursday, 17-Apr-2014 17:36:20 UTC