Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 232334

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
734 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.


A tropical wave extends from 12N25W to 04N26W moving west at 10 
kt. The SSMI TPW animation shows a surge of moisture along the 
wave axis. A trough is also well depicted at 700 mb. Scattered 
showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A weak tropical wave extends from 13N57W to 05N58W moving W at 
10-15 kt. The TPW animation shows a modest surge of moisture 
near the wave axis. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the 
wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean Sea. Its axis 
extends from Jamaica near 18N77W to E Panama near 09N78W moving W
at 10-15 kt. The SSMI TPW animation shows a modest surge of 
moisture along the wave axis. Scattered showers are within 120 nm 
of the wave axis.


The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 11N15W and 
continues to 06N22W. The ITCZ extends west of a tropical wave from 
07N28W to 06N40W to the coast of South America near 05N52W. 
Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 34W-44W. 
Similar convection is from 05N-09N between 50W-56W.



A cold front extends from S Mississippi near 30N89W to S Texas
near 26N97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is N
of 25N from the front to N Florida. 15 kt N winds are W of the
front. 10-15 kt SE to S winds are E of the front due to surface
ridging. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over 
N Texas. Upper level diffluence is over the N Gulf N of 24N 
enhancing convection. Expect over the next 24 hours for another 
cold front to enter the NW Gulf and merge with the current cold
front. The combined front in 24 hours will extend from the Florida
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche with convection well E of front.


A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please see above. 
Elsewhere, 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea. 
Strongest winds are along the coast of N Colombia. Widely 
scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean, Panama,
and Costa Rica associated with the monsoon trough. Scattered 
showers are also over E Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico,
and the Leeward Islands. Expect the tropical wave to move W over 
the next 24 hours.


Daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting 
will produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly 
during the afternoon and early evening hours. A tropical wave over
Jamaica will move W over the next 24 hours and lessen the amount
of available moisture over Hispaniola.  


A 1023 mb high is located over the W Atlantic near 36N58W. A cold
front is over the central Atlantic from 31N33W to 24N50W. 
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A 1022 mb high 
is centered over the E Atlantic near 27N29W. Of note in the upper
levels, a very large upper level trough is over the central 
Atlantic enhancing the cold front. Expect in 24 hours for the 
cold front to extend from 31N28W to 22N45W with showers. Later
by Wednesday night, strong to near gale force winds are expected 
over the SW N Atlantic, E of Florida, ahead of the next cold 
front forecast to enter the area on Thursday.

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 23-May-2017 23:34:28 UTC