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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic east of the Cape Verde
Islands. The wave extends from 07N-15N with axis near 20W, moving
W at 5 kt within the last 12 hours. The wave is being engulfed by
Saharan dry air and dust, which have significantly reduced
the convection associated with it. The CIRA LPW imagery show dry
air from the surface to 850 mb in the northern wave environment,
which is devoid of convection. Scattered showers are in the
southern portion of the wave from 07N-13N E of 22W. Some
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves W or W-NW. However, environmental conditions are
expected to become less conducive for development early next week
while the system is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic W of the Cape Verde
Islands extending from 10N-18N with axis near 33W, moving at 15
kt within the last 24 hours. Meteosat composite imagery show
Saharan dry air and dust in the wave environment. CIRA LPW imagery
from the surface to 850 mb confirms dry air intrusion in the wave
environment, which is keeping the wave devoid of convection.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 09N-18N with axis
near 46W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW
imagery show mainly dry air from the surface to 850 mb associated
with this wave. The dry air is due to the presence of abundant
Saharan dry air and dust, which continue to hinder convection at
the time.

A tropical wave is in the west Caribbean from 11N-22N with axis
near 79W, moving west at 25 kt within the last 24 hours. Aloft,
water vapor imagery show strong dry subsidence across most of the
SW Caribbean, which is inhibiting convection in that region of the
wave. However, shallow moisture in the NW Caribbean and divergent
flow aloft support isolated showers and tstms N of 17N W of 74W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 19N16W and continues to 11N30W to 08N46W where the
ITCZ begins and continues to Guyana near 08N59W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical waves, scattered heavy showers
are from 03N-11N between 26W and 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad inverted upper-level trough covers most of the Gulf of
Mexico. This feature along with shallow moisture across the basin
support isolated showers and tstms N of 21N. A surface trough is
off the W Yucatan Peninsula supporting scattered heavy showers and
tstms S of 21N E of 93W. Otherwise, weak surface ridging is
elsewhere being anchored by a 1018 mb high in the NE basin near
28N85W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
return flow across most of the Gulf. Weak surface pressure and
return flow will prevail the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A tropical wave is in the west Caribbean from 11N-22N with axis
near 79W. Aloft, water vapor imagery show strong dry subsidence
across most of the SW Caribbean, which is inhibiting convection in
that region of the wave. However, shallow moisture in the NW
Caribbean and divergent flow aloft support isolated showers and
tstms N of 17N W of 74W. In the SW basin, the monsoon trough
supports heavy showers and tstms S of 10N E of 78W. Water vapor
and CIRA LPW imagery show dry stable air across the remainder
basin, which is supporting fair weather. Fresh to strong winds
continue across the central Caribbean between 67W and 79W, which are
expected to amplify west and continue through the weekend. The
next tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean by late Friday.

...HISPANIOLA... 

Hispaniola enjoys fair weather tonight as stable deep layer dry
air moves across the Island. Haze and dust are being reported in
the N and SE portions Dominican Republic due to the presence of
Saharan air in the region as indicated by Meteosat composite
imagery. Except for afternoon showers to be concentrated over the
central and western portions of the Island, fair weather is
expected through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the tropical waves section for more details. Surface high
pressure is across the remainder basin being anchored by a 1033 mb
high centered N of the Azores Islands. Little change is expected
through the next 48 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS