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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 031048
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 
5N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
5N18W TO 3N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S48W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 7N-2S BETWEEN 1W-25W...AND FROM 3N-4S BETWEEN 27W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR JACKSONVILLE 
FLORIDA AT 31N81W. 10 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE LATEST GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY 
SHOWS IFR CONDITIONS INLAND W OF TAMPICO MEXICO... BUT NOT OVER 
THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO 
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW 
OVER THE GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

AS OF 0900 UTC...A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM E CUBA AT 21N78W TO E HONDURAS AT 15N84W TO S NICARAGUA AT 
12N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR...W HONDURAS...AND 
NICARAGUA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 86W-91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 
74W-80W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE 
FRONT TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE ISLAND. 
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MOSTLY OVER HAITI DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVER E CUBA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N58W 
TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
26N49W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N55W 
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE 
COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 31N51W WITH MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
FORMOSA


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Page last modified: Sunday, 03-May-2015 10:48:53 UTC