Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 292332

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
732 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.


A cold front will enter the Gulf of Mexico in 18 hours and extend 
from 30N93W to 26N96W to 22N98W. Gale force winds are expected 
between 22N-24N west of front on 30/1200 UTC. These conditions 
will continue through early Monday, when the front will be over 
the eastern portion of the basin. The pressure gradient will then 
relax across the southwest Gulf. Please read the latest National 
Hurricane Center High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends form the coast of west Africa near
08N13W to 05N14W. A surface trough is off the coast of west Africa 
from 07N17W to 01N17W. The ITCZ extends from 02N19W to 01S26W to
01N37W to the coast of South America near 02S45W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the surface trough axis. Isolated 
moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 05S-04N between 20W-30W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 04S-05N
between 30W-54W. 



15-30 kt SW return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico. The surface
pressure gradient is fairly tight over the W Gulf, W of 90W, 
where winds are 25-30 kt. Radar imagery shows scattered showers  
over W Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Straits of Florida. Areas 
of smoke are over the W Gulf W of 88W, moving NW restricting 
visibility along the Texas and Louisiana coasts. In the upper 
levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 82W. Broken high
clouds extend from the SW Gulf to the NE Gulf. A Gale is expected
over the NW Gulf in 18 hours behind a cold front. See above. 


15-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds over the central Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
over numerous locations this evening due to maximum diurnal
heating namely: E Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, NW 
Venezuela, N Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, Honduras, and 
Guatemala. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands. In the
upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 82W. 
Expect similar weather over the next 24 hours with the addition of
convection over the Leeward Islands. 


Presently scattered moderate convection and scattered showers are
over the island due to maximum diurnal heating, and upper level
diffluence. Expect a repeat tomorrow evening especially over the 
Dominican Republic.


A 1028 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 32N65W. An area of 
scattered showers are N of Hispaniola from 20N-23N between 66W-72W.
Another 1029 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 35N41W. 
Further E, a 1012 mb surface low is SW of the Canary Islands near
23N24W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is 
centered over the W Atlantic near 25N70W. An upper level trough is
over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 40W-60W. Another small
upper level low is just W of the Canary Islands near 27N20W 
enhancing showers along the coast of Morocco. 

For additional information please visit 


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Page last modified: Saturday, 29-Apr-2017 23:33:09 UTC