Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 260005

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.


A tropical wave came off Africa earlier today. Its axis extends
from 10N19W to 01N19W and is forecast to move at 10-15 kt within
the next 24 hours. The wave is in a favorable wind shear
environment and CIRA LPW imagery show mainly a moderate moist 
environment with some patches of dry air as the wave is being 
engulfed by the Saharan Air Layer. Upper level diffluence supports
scattered showers from 0N-07N between 17W and 30W.

A tropical wave is in the west Atlc with axis extending from 
13N44W to 04N47W, moving westward at around 20 kt within the last
24 hours. The latest scatterometer data at the time of the 
analysis showed the inverted-v wind pattern associated with the
wave axis. The wave is in an unfavorable wind shear environment
and very dry Saharan air engulfs it. CIRA LPW imagery show shallow
moisture near the center of the wave axis and dry air in the rest
of the wave environment. Upper level divergence supports scattered
moderate convection from 07N-11N between 43W-49W. 

A tropical wave is in the western Atlc with axis extending from
14N51W to 04N53W, moving W at 20 kt over the last 24 hours. Unfavorable
wind shear and Saharan dry air across the wave environment hinder
convection at the time. 

A tropical wave is over the southwest Caribbean with axis
extending from 14N77W across Panama to EPAC waters near 03N79W,
moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. Some dry air is
depicted by CIRA LPW ahead of the wave axis, but mostly shallow
moderate moisture is in its vicinity. Unfavorable wind shear and
dry air subsidence from aloft hinder convection in the Caribbean
basin. However, abundant moisture and favorable wind shear in the
EPAC support heavy rainfall and scattered tstms there.

A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula and
Guatemala. The wave axis extends from 20N89W to 11N92W, moving W
at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. Scattered showers and tstms
associated with this wave are inland. The wave will move to EPAC
waters Friday.


The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 11N16W and 
continues to 06N15W to 05N19W. The ITCZ begins near 04N23W and 
extends to 07N39W. Aside from the convection associated with the 
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 0N-06N 
between 23W-31W.



Strong dry air subsidence allows for clear skies across most of 
the Gulf behind a cold front that extends from the southern
Florida Peninsula near 25N81W to 23N85W to 22N88W where it starts
to weaken and transitions to a stationary front to 21N92W.
Scattered showers are within 210 nm east of the front, including
the Florida straits and the Yucatan Channel. This front is
forecast to exit the basin on Friday morning, leaving the basin
with weak surface high pressure and light to gentle variable flow
through Friday. Return moderate to fresh flow will dominate across
the basin the remainder of the weekend. 


A tropical wave is over the SW Caribbean, however due to strong
wind shear and strong dry air subsidence from aloft no convection
is associated with it. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section
for more details. Scattered showers are over the far NW basin N of
20N W of 78W associated with a cold front moving across South
Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico. These showers will continue
through Friday morning as the front moves to SW N Atlc waters.
Otherwise, high pressure over the central Atlantic extends a 
ridge toward the SW across the eastern Caribbean Sea supporting 
fresh to strong easterly winds across the east and central 
Caribbean and near gale force winds along the coast of Colombia. Moderate
to fresh southeast winds are over the western part of the basin. Visible
satellite imagery and Saharan Air layer from UW-CIMSS reveal the 
presence of Saharan dry air across much of the Caribbean, thus
supporting hazy conditions in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola. Fresh to near gale winds will persist over the 
central Caribbean through Friday, then diminish on Saturday. 
Pulsing fresh easterly winds are expected across the Gulf of 
Honduras at night through Monday night. 


Mostly dry and hazy conditions will prevail across the island
under the influence of a ridge. Model guidance continue to show
limited moisture across the region through Saturday evening when
shallow moisture may enhance showers. Fair weather is expected Sun
except again for afternoon/evening showers.


A cold front enters the forecast area in the SW N Atlc near 
30N75W and extends SW to southern Florida near 26N80W. A band of 
showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front across the
northern and central Bahamas as well as the Great Bahama Bank. Fresh
to strong winds are on either side of the front, but mainly north
of 27N. A 1026 mb high pressure centered near 31N46W currently 
dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic and central 
Atlantic. A weaker cold front is in the NE forecast waters
extending from 30N18W to 27N27W where it becomes stationary to 
21N44W. This front will continue to weaken and dissipate Saturday.
Three tropical waves are between 19W and 55W. Please refer to the
tropical waves section for more details.

For additional information please visit 


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Page last modified: Friday, 26-May-2017 00:05:10 UTC