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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 171116

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
616 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1100 UTC.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 
03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 
03N20N to the Equator near 27W. Isolated moderate convection is S
of 05N between the Prime Meridian and 20W. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is S of 05N between 20W-39W.


A middle to upper level ridge prevails over the Gulf basin this
morning with axis extending from over the Yucatan peninsula along
90W northward to over the lower Mississippi River valley. 
Primarily southwesterly flow aloft is noted on the western 
periphery of the ridge with scattered cloudiness and isolated 
showers occurring across the far NW Gulf waters focused along a 
stationary front analyzed across eastern Texas to NE Mexico near 
25N99W. Otherwise...surface ridging prevails with moderate to 
fresh E-SE winds expected through Wednesday.

Overall tranquil conditions persist across the Caribbean basin
this morning as water vapor imagery indicates broad middle to 
upper level troughing and dry air aloft. Latest scatterometer data
depicts generally moderate to fresh trades across the basin with 
slightly stronger winds occurring within close proximity to the 
coast of Colombia between 72W-77W. Satellite imagery shows 
isolated trade wind showers across the eastern portion of the 
basin while widely scattered showers are across Honduras and 
Nicaragua...including the adjacent coastal waters from 10N-19N 
between 82W-89W. Similar weather conditions are forecast through 
Friday as surface ridging remains anchored across the SW North 
Atlc region.

Fresh NE winds prevail across the island and adjacent coastal 
waters this morning. Winds will diminish slightly on Wednesday as
the ridging to the N weakens. Isolated showers are forecast to 
continue through Wednesday while the E-NE flow persists.

A broad 1027 mb surface high centered across the mid-Atlc coast 
near 36N77W extends influence across much of the SW North Atlc 
generally W of 60W. A slight weakness in the ridging is evident as
a cold front enters the discussion area near 32N42W and extends 
W-SW to 28N50W to 26N63W. Scattered showers and tstms are 
occurring within 90 nm either side of the front E of 48W. Isolated
showers are occurring elsewhere within 120 nm either side of the 
front W of 48W. Farther east...another weakening frontal boundary
extends from 32N27W to 27N33W to 23N35W. Isolated showers are
possible within 60 nm either side of the front. Finally...SE of 
the Windward Islands...a surface trough analyzed from 06N57W to 
13N57W is providing focus for scattered showers and isolated 
tstms from 05N-15N between 50W-60W.

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