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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270541
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 59W 
AND 63W UNTIL EARLY MORNING MON. THIS GALE WARNING IS A RESULT 
OF A 991 MB LOW NEAR 36N60W WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS DIPPING 
JUST S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FROM THE AFRICA INTO THE 
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W AND EXTENDS TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W 1N34W THE S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH 
AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
6N-8N E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N E OF 13W TO THE COAST 
OF LIBERIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 
2N-6N BETWEEN 15W-29W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES 
THE GULF WATERS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL 
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE N GULF. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER 
THE N GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 25N96W ALONG 
28N88W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY. FIRES OVER S MEXICO AND 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS THE SW AND 
S/CENTRAL GULF. THIS AREA OF SMOKE IS SHIFTING E TOWARD THE SE 
GULF. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS IS EXPECTED 
TO SHIFT S INTO THE N GULF EARLY MON THEN RETREAT N AGAIN TUE. A 
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A STRONG FRONT 
THAT IS EXPECTED TO THE ENTER THE GULF TUE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH 
PRECEDING IT ON MON. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE GULF 
THROUGH WED. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA 
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
THE W ATLC. AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN ACROSS 
CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF 
HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING ISOLATED SHOWERS 
INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA 
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER 
TONIGHT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED SMOKE IN 
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL 
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT OFFSHORE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. 
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA THEN STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN BY WED. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E 
HAITI TONIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING 
COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT IS GENERATING 
SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 
60/90 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO 
29N74W. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGHS ARE MOVING THROUGH 
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 36W-62W. THE 
ATLC IS DOMINATED AT THE SURFACE BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE 
ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A PAIR OF 1024 MB HIGHS NEAR 33N24W 
AND 26N33W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 26N33W ALONG 
21N46W TO 21N70W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WILL SHIFT S INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM 
31N63W TO 27N68W TO 25N75W EARLY TUE REACHING FROM 31N59W TO 
26N66W WITH A WARM FRONT FROM 26N66W TO BEYOND 31N78W EARLY WED. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW


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Page last modified: Monday, 27-Apr-2015 05:42:01 UTC