Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 281118
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1000 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 7N22W 4N34W 5N53W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 
9W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO 
THIS MORNING ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF 
LOUISIANA NEAR 28N92W. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS 
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...MOIST 
SWLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH 
OVER TEXAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF ARE 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM 24N-31N 
BETWEEN 91W-95W...AS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY. LIGHT TO GENTLE 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO 
SHIFT EWD AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE WRN GULF AHEAD 
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST 
EARLY MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW 
CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO NW OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N79W 
CONTINUING ALONG 18N82W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 14N87W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT AXIS...WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS NW OF THE FRONT FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 80W-85W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N 
BETWEEN 74W-80W DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC 
ITCZ...AND A 1007 MB LOW OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W. THE ACTIVITY 
IS ALSO ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IN THE E PACIFIC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE 
CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING 
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND SUBSIDENT 
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. NE SURFACE WINDS 
OF 15-20 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT...WITH FRESH TO STRONG ELY 
TRADEWINDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE FRONT 
TO REMAIN STATIONARY AND BECOME DIFFUSE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH 
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT AXIS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION 
AREA E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N61W CONTINUING ALONG 25N66W TO THE FAR 
SE BAHAMAS NEAR 21N71W TO E CUBA NEAR 20N75W BECOMING STATIONARY 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF 
THE FRONT FROM 27N62W TO 20N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE 
FRONT AXIS...AND WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE AXIS N OF 
27N BETWEEN 55W-60W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW S OF MAINE TO E OF THE SE BAHAMAS. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT 
BETWEEN THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 33N52W 
IS SUPPORTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY E OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL ATLC...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 49W 
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-31N 
BETWEEN 44W-49W...AND FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 49W-52W. THE UPPER 
TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS MADE EVIDENT BY
SE-NE WIND SHIFTS IN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE FIRST IS E OF 
THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 17N54W TO 12N55W. THE SECOND 
IS TO THE N EXTENDING FROM 25N51W TO 20N53W. THE AFOREMENTIONED 
SHOWER ACTIVITY LIES TO THE E OF THESE TROUGHS MORE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS 
DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB AZORES 
HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 38N31W. 

$$
WALTON