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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 051740
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
105 PM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...                         
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA 
FROM 10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW 
GALE FORCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL RESUME LATER THIS 
EVENING AND WILL PULSE OVERNIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE 
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...                        
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF W OF A COLD FRONT 
THAT AT 05/1200 UTC EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO. GALE 
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SE THROUGH SAT 
MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 9N13W ALONG 4N15W TO 2N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W-
47W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES TOWARD THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 05/1500 UTC 
ENTERS THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA ALONG 26N93W TO INLAND 
OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF 
THE FRONT N OF 28N. STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS WITH DENSE LOW TO 
MID CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE GULF W OF 
THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING 
FROM 22N96W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED 
IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO 
THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE 
E GULF TO 90W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO THE COLD 
FRONT AS IT MOVES SE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA 
TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING OVER 
THE SE GULF LATE FRI AND DISSIPATING SAT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH AN UPPER 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE 
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE E ATLC THROUGH 
THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR COSTA RICA. RELATIVELY DRY AND 
STABLE AIR WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. 
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT TO GIVE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN 
WITH THE WINDS PULSING TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. THESE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 20N E OF 79W AND S OF 17N 
W OF 79W. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS 
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH AN UPPER 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N65W. AN UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC ALONG 32N36W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N42W 
CONTINUING INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N51W THEN ACROSS THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC BASIN THAT IS SPLIT N OF 32N BY A 
WEAK COLD FRONT. A 1032 MB HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 
33N51W AND A 1031 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 34N31W. THE GULF OF 
MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST LATE 
TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI. THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE 
SE GULF OF MEXICO/W ATLC THROUGH SAT WHILE THE NORTHERN PART OF 
THE FRONT SHIFTS E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC LATE SAT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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Page last modified: Thursday, 05-Mar-2015 17:40:34 UTC