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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 251806

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.


Gaston weakened to a tropical storm at 25/1500 UTC. Its center is
near 20.4N 44.4W or about 1008 nm east-northeast of the Leeward
Islands moving northwest at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with
gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate convection is from 20N to 23N
between 42W and 45W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from
18N to 27N between 40W and 51W. Please see the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.


A Gale warning continues in effect for the area northeast and east of
a broad area of low pressure analyzed as a 1008 mb low north of
Hispaniola near 21N70W. These winds are expected to continue
through early Friday morning. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 16N to 23N between 64W and 75W
including Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Environmental
conditions have the potential to become more conducive for
tropical development and this system could become a tropical
depression during the next couple of days when the system is near
the central or northwestern Bahamas. Regardless of development,
heavy rains are likely over Puerto Rico today, and strong winds
and heavy rainfall are likely over portions of Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas during
the next couple of days. These rains could lead to flash floods
and mudslides. There is a medium chance of tropical development
in the next 48 hours.


A tropical wave came off the West Coast of Africa near 0000 UTC
today. Saharan dry air and dust cover most of the wave
environment, which along with unfavorable deep layer wind shear
hinder convection at the time.


The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 18N16W then continues along 08N22W to 06N35W. The
ITCZ is not currently evident. Scattered moderate convection is
from 05N to 10N E of 17W.



A broad middle to upper level ridge is anchored over Tennessee covering
the Gulf waters north of 25N. An elongated upper trough extends
from the northern Bahamas SW to the Yucatan peninsula. Diffluent
flow between these two upper features along with abundant moisture
support scattered to isolated heavy showers and tstms N of 24N
between 85W and 95W. In the SW basin, a surface trough along
23N92W to 18N94W support isolated showers in the Bay of Campeche. A
weak surface ridge extends from the northwest Atlantic across the
southeast CONUS to over the north Gulf and is anchored by a 1023 mb
high over Georgia. This surface ridge will persist through


The main concern affecting the basin is the area of low pressure in
the Special Features centered just north of Hispaniola. Please
see the Special Features section above for the activity associated
with this system over the north-central and northeast Caribbean. The
elongated upper trough extending across the SE Gulf of Mexico and
the Yucatan Peninsula generates diffluent flow just in the
vicinity of western Honduras and Belize to support scattered
showers and isolated tstms S of 19N W of 86W. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm off the coast of southern Panama associated with
the east Pacific monsoon trough. East to southeast moderate winds
dominate the central and eastern Caribbean waters while gentle NW
flow covers the western portion of the basin. The area of low
pressure in the Special Features will continue to track
northwestward during the next two days generating showers for the
Greater Antilles including Cuba.


Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are across the central
and souther portions of the Island associated with a broad area of
low pressure centered over northern adjacent waters. Shower
activity assciated with this low will continue through Sunday
potentially causing flash floods and mud slides over portions of
the island during the next couple of days. Please see the Special
Features section for further details.


The primary concern in the basin is Tropical Storm Gaston in the
central Atlantic and an area of Gale-force winds associated with
a broad area of low pressure centered N of Hispaniola. Please see
the Special Features section above for the activity associated
with this system over the southwest Atlantic. The remainder of
the east Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a
1025 mb high southwest of the Azores. The Special Features low
will track northwestward through the Bahamas into the weekend with
gale force winds northeast of the surface low.

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