Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 240603

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.


A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 05N-20N with axis
near 41W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave
coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough depicted in global
models and is embedded in a dry air environment from the surface
to 850 mb as indicated by the CIRA Layer Precipitable Water
imagery. No convection is associated with the wave due in part to
the presence of Saharan dry air and dust.

A tropical wave is in the Yucatan Peninsula and north Central
America from 12N to 21N with axis near 89W, moving W at 20 kt
within the last 24 hours. SSMI TPW imagery show abundant moderate
moisture in the wave low to mid level environment. Aloft,
divergent flow support scattered to isolated showers over the
Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador as well as the
Gulf of Honduras.

A tropical wave is over the western Bay of Campeche south of 22N
with axis near 96W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours.
No convection is associated with the wave at the time.


The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 21N16W and continues to 12N26W to 07N40W. The ITCZ
begins near 07N42W and continues to 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 06N to 13N E of 30W and from 04N to 08N between 30W and



Weak surface ridging covers most of the basin N of 23N and provide
gentle to moderate wind. South of 23N, a tropical wave is in the
Yucatan Peninsula supporting showers in the Yucatan Channel and
eastern Bay of Campeche. A second tropical wave is over the
western Bay of Campeche lacking convection at the time. For
further information about the waves refer to the waves section
above. In the upper levels, a broad ridge anchored over northern
Louisiana provides NE to E flow to the basin, except for the far
SE portion of the Gulf where an upper level low centered between
Andros and southern Florida generates diffluence aloft to support
scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms S of 26N E of 85W. The
westernmost tropical wave will enter E Mexico by Sunday morning
and the wave in the Yucatan Peninsula will move to the Bay of
Campeche supporting showers.


A tropical wave with axis in the Yucatan Peninsula supports
scattered to isolated showers in the Gulf of Honduras. In the
remainder NW basin, a diffluent environment aloft generated by a low
centered between south Florida and Andros and NE flow over the
Gulf of Mexico support scattered to isolated showers N of 18N W of
76W. Similar convection is within 60 nm off the coast of Panama
and Costa Rica supported by the presence of the EPAC monsoon
trough. Strong dry air subsidence is depicted in water vapor
imagery across the remainder basin, which is favoring fair
weather. Fresh to strong winds are S of 14N between 72W and 77W.
Moderate trades dominate elsewhere. 


Strong dry air subsidence over the Island maintains fair weather
conditions tonight. Shallow moisture associated with a surface
trough in the E Caribbean may bring showers Sunday in the
afternoon/early evening hours.


A tropical wave is moving over central Atlantic waters with no
convection. Please refer to the section above for details. An
upper level low centered between southern Florida and Andros
Island support scattered showers in the Florida Straits and the
Great Bahama Bank. Otherwise, surface ridging dominates elsewhere.
No major changes expected in the next two days.

For additional information please visit


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Page last modified: Sunday, 24-Jul-2016 06:04:18 UTC