Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241046
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N54W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA 
ALONG 5N56W TO 2N56W MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE 
LEADING EDGE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE HAS LOST THE CONVECTION. 
HOWEVER DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 12N16W CONTINUING TO 8N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 5N30W 3N40W ACROSS THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH 
AMERICA NEAR 48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 28W-38W...WITHIN 
120 NM OF LINE FROM 4N28W TO 10N51W...AND S OF 3N W OF 46WACROSS 
THE EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 4N-8N E OF 21W 
TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING  
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 
22N91W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO TO NEAR 18N92W.  A WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE N GULF WITH A 1018 MB 
HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA. THIS IS LEAVING 
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE 
SURFACE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY HEAD OF A WEAK COLD 
FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NE GULF TONIGHT AND 
MOVE E OF THE BASIN SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FROM THE NE 
TO SW GULF THROUGH SAT AND THEN SETTLE OVER THE N GULF COASTAL 
PLAIN SUN THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
NEAR ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF 
DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 11N78W THEN ACROSS COSTA RICA 
NEAR 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
S OF 14N W OF 72W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA. THE 
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN 
N OF 14N E OF 71W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO. 
W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE 
ACROSS MOST OF REGION THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO 
THE CARIBBEAN SAT INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE. 

HISPANIOLA...                                                  
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD AREA 
OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE 
GREATER ANTILLES INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. WEATHER SERVICE IN THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS FORECASTING LESS RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY AS 
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N78W TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W 
GENERATING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 24N75W 28N73W TO BEYOND 32N73W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM 31N79W TO OVER FLORIDA 
NEAR WEST PALM BEACH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N. A SURFACE 
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC 
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 34N56W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH 
COVERS THE E ATLC SUPPORTING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE 
REGION FROM A WEAK 1019 MB LOW NEAR 32N38W ALONG 27N38W TO 
24N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N41W 
ALONG 27N47W TO 28N54W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES.  
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW WATERS TODAY EXTENDING FROM 32N70W TO 
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SAT THEN WEAKEN FROM 32N64W TO 37N70W BY 
MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUN THROUGH 
TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW