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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271723
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1745 UTC. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W AND 
EXTENDS TO 07N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 06N30W 
TO 06N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 05N52W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 29W AND 49W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH SUPPORTS SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER E TX. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
THE SE CONUS EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF. FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW OVER 
TX AND HIGH OVER THE SE CONUS IS PRODUCING E TO SE FLOW OF 10 TO 
15 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF BASIN AND 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE 
NORTHERN GULF BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...NW 
OF A LINE FROM 22N98W TO 30N88W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W GULF TO NEAR VERA CRUZ TO LOUISIANA 
WITH CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE 
THAT SUPPORTS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN...OTHER THAN 
SOME WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND 
LEEWARD ISLANDS. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN FROM THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 
79W. TRADE WINDS OF MAINLY 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  

HISPANIOLA...                   

SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING  
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS E PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. 
EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N46W AND EXTENDS 
SW TO 24N53W AND THEN W TO 23N61W TO 26N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES FROM 26N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT 
E OF 50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT 
W OF 50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF 
THE STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH 
OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A PAIR OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE 
TROUGHS ALONG 45W AND 32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 23W AND 42W. SW WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT 
ARE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 28W AND 35W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD 
EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH FAIR WEATHER.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



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Page last modified: Saturday, 27-Dec-2014 17:24:07 UTC