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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 222335
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2330 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 
10N15W TO 9N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N29W TO 
8N41W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 15W-27W... AND 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 28W-47W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF NORTH 
CAROLINA NEAR 35N78W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND 
THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING 15-20 KT E TO SE FLOW MAINLY ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN N OF 26N. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 89W-95W 
AND FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 84W-87W AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL 
SYSTEM THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS SW TEXAS AND EXTENDING TO NORTHERN 
MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND 
EXTENDING TO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 25N84W TO 25N70W. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT THAT IS OVER SW TEXAS TO BE ALONG THE 
COAST ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS. 

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 
17N87W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 16N65W IS PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE 
E CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 62W-71W AFFECTING ALSO THE 
ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. TO THE S...THE PROXIMITY 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS 
PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS S OF 11N. OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES DRIFTING W.

...HISPANIOLA... 

ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS AN 
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SE OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUES DRIFTING W. EXPECT 
THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE 
FLORIDA STRAITS AS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N48W TO 25N67W AND AS A 
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N67W TO 25N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 74W-
76W. A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N44W IS SUPPORTED AT UPPER 
LEVELS BY A BROAD RIDGE AND KEEPING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
ATLANTIC CONVECTION FREE. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION E OF THE LESSER 
ANTILLES FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 54W-61W. TO THE E...A 1001 MB 
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 31N12W ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION 
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS AND NW AFRICA AS WELL AS THEIR 
ADJACENT WATERS E OF 17W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE 
COLD FRONT TO BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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Page last modified: Saturday, 22-Nov-2014 23:36:03 UTC