Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 260551

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 22.8N 46.4W at 26/0300
UTC or about 935 nm east-northeast of the Leeward Islands and
about 1130 nm east-southeast of Bermuda moving northwest at 15
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 22N-27N between
40W-48W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.


Tropical wave in the far east Tropical Atlantic extends along
21W from 10N-18N with a weak 1009 mb low along the wave near
13N. The wave/low is moving southwest near 10 kt over the past 6
hours. Wave is embedded within an area of dry stable air, thus
no associated showers or convection. 

The 1008 mb low center and surface trough that was in the
special Features yesterday, will now be classified as a tropical
wave/low again based on scatterometer pass and satellite
images on the 26/0600 UTC surface analysis.  


The monsoon trough is analyzed from the 1009 mb low/tropical
wave near 13N21W along 6N33W to 8N41W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 10N49W into South America near 8N60W. Clusters
of scattered moderate convection are within 60 nm of a line from
7N20W to 5N24W, from 2N to the monsoon trough between 33W-40W,
and from 8N-11N between 45W-54W. 



A broad upper ridge is anchored over North Carolina extending an
upper ridge axis southwest to over Texas covering the Gulf
waters north of 25N. An elongated upper trough extends from
Mexico near Tampico across the south Gulf to west Cuba creating
a diffluent environment to generate scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf from 24N-28N between
82W89W. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms dot the
remainder of the Gulf except north of 28N east of 89W where
clear skies prevail. A weak surface ridge extends from over the
southeast CONUS anchored by a 1019 mb high over western North
Carolina. This surface ridge will persist through Saturday
night. A low, possibly as a tropical cyclone, could move into
the east Gulf late in the weekend or early next week. 


An upper ridge dominates the Caribbean tonight anchored south of
Hispaniola and extending an upper ridge axis west to the Yucatan
peninsula and east across the Lesser Antilles. An upper trough
is north of the Greater Antilles and creating a diffluent
environment to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms north of 16N across Jamaica and over Cuba between
75W-81W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
are north of 16N to over Hispaniola between 68W-75W. Isolated
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are north of a line
from Saint Lucia in the Lesser Antilles to 16N68W including all
of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. The
1008 mb low will track northwestward into the weekend and could
produce heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods
and mudslides, over Hispaniola. eastern and central Cuba during
the next couple of days.


Currently scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
are over the island due to an upper trough north of the island
and the upper ridge in the Caribbean. Heavy rains, and possible
flash floods and mud slides will continue over the island
through Friday. 


A series of upper troughs cover the west Atlantic tonight. At
the surface, is a dissipating stationary front that extends
through 32N66W to a weak 1014 mb low near 29N69W to 28N71W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 75 nm of
a line from 28N67W to 31N64W. A surface trough extends from
29N75W to 24N78W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are within 120 nm west of the surface trough. The third feature
is a surface trough that extends from 27N72w to a weak 1008 mb
low near 21N74W. This feature will be converted back to a
tropical wave and low on the 26/0600 UTC surface analysis. A
cutoff upper low is in the central Atlantic near 22N54W and is
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 23N-
2&n between 48W-55W. The remainder of the east Atlantic north of
Hurricane Gaston east of 60W is dominated by a surface ridge
anchored by a 1025 mb high near 33N44W. The 1008 mb low will
track northwestward into the weekend. The strongest winds and
highest seas are northeast of the low. Gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall are also possible over portions of the Bahamas
during the next few days. 

For additional information please visit


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Page last modified: Friday, 26-Aug-2016 05:52:09 UTC