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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221754
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEAR GALE WINDS CONTINUE FOR ZONE AGADIR ALONG THE COAST OF 
MOROCCO...AND FOR ZONE CANARIAS IN BETWEEN ISLANDS. BEAUFORT 7 
OR 32KT-38KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR 
BOTH ZONES. THE GALE IS DUE TO STRONG WINDS CAUSED BY A TIGHT 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1037 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES 
AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MOROCCO. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...EXTENDING FROM 09N24W 
TO 04N24W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE WAVE SOUTH OF 10N. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 06N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N27W AND 
CONTINUES THROUGH 06N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 
02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 02W AND 08W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 03W AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 27W AND 47W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...               

AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT 
CROSSES CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE GULF FROM NEAR 28N83W TO 29N86W 
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 29N90W TO THE 
TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N98W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 
29N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE 
SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND AS OF 1500 UTC EXTENDED FROM 23N93W TO 
18N95W...MOVING WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
19N TO 25N BETWEEN 94W AND 99W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
27N86W. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE BASIN EAST OF 90W AND 
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. E TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE 
NORTH OF THE FRONT. E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE BASIN 
W OF 90W AND S OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DISTURBANCES ROUNDING AN UPPER TROUGH 
OVER THE ROCKIES MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN 
GULF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHER DAYTIME CONVECTION 
MAY MEANDER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ONCE 
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N74W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W. UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS DRAWING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC TO JAMAICA 
AND HISPANIOLA...SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 
19N BETWEEN 72W AND 87W. PRIMARILY 15 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS COVER 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH WINDS NEARING 30 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AND WEAKER WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ALONG THE S COAST OF 
CUBA. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA 
THIS AFTERNOON AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINES WITH LOW 
LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS 
THE ISLAND. EXPECT PRIMARILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND 
AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N77W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE CENTRAL FL COAST NEAR 29N81W. 
NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT. AN 
UPPER TROUGH ALONG 64W WITH A BASE NEAR 24N SUPPORTS ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 57W AND 68W. A 1037 
MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER S OF 
32N ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 
ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF MOROCCO BETWEEN THE 
AZORES HIGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER N AFRICA. PLEASE SEE THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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Page last modified: Friday, 22-May-2015 17:54:55 UTC