000 AXNT20 KNHC 252355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N30W 9N47W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 10W-13W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 15W-20W... FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 22W-36W...AND FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 22W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW CENTER TO S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER A LARGE AREA E OF 85W TO INCLUDE MOST OF FLORIDA. NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE NOTED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-82W MOVING E. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 32N83W 30N85W MOVING E. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES E OF 85W INTO GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF W OF 90W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE W GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS E OF 85W. SIMILAR MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO W OF 98W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTS TO MOVE E AND BE IN THE W ATLANTIC IN 24 HOURS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN IS IN THE WARM AIRMASS AREA OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 82W-85W. FURTHER S...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CUBA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N78W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W MOVING E. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF 76W. A 1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 25N54W 21N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 48W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER N FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 50W-52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 19N45W 8N47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 43W-46W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N24W. EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 31N72W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. $$ FORMOSA
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