Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 260548
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

7N12W 6N28W 9N484W...INTO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 6N60W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 
10N BETWEEN 10W AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 31N37W TO 10N40W
TROUGH IS PUSHING CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN AFRICA 
AND 40W NORTHEASTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 10N54W TO 
18N50W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE ITCZ
NEAR 10N40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE U.S.A. TO THE EAST OF 
105W SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH 
31N78 TO FLORIDA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N83W. THE FRONT 
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST AND 
ULTIMATELY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N TO CUBA BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...
FROM CUBA TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...AND TO THE NORTH
OF 25N BETWEEN 75W AND THE COASTS OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA AND
BEYOND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL 
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W...IN THE
AREA OF A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN 
COASTAL COLOMBIA TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF NICARAGUA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS SENDING 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA AND 
PANAMA TO JAMAICA...AND THEN THE FLOW CURVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE 
OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALREADY IS AFFECTING AND HAS BEEN 
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 
20N BETWEEN 64W AND THE EASTERN U.S.A. COAST. ONE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N58W TO 22N55W 
TO 17N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N58W TO 28N61W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N53W 
TO 24N55W TO 21N59W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 
23N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W...FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 49W AND 
52W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. A SECOND 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N37W TO 26N40W. A THIRD UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS 
NEAR 21N45W TO TO 10N40W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
12N TO 21N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

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MT