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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 311109
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE 36-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD 
FRONT FROM 31N74W TO 23N80.5W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WESTERLY WINDS 
AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 16 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 
29N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N76W BETWEEN HAITI AND 
JAMAICA...15N76W...TO 10N77W AT THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WAVE 
IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN 
HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS 
NEAR THE BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINSHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA 
LEONE NEAR 8N13W...TO 7N15W 6N23W AND 6N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES 
FROM 6N25W TO 4N32W AND 4N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 5N 
FROM 30W EASTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 27W AND 54W.  

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N53W 13N55W 10N57W. 
THIS TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL IN THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN 
CLUSTERS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE 
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....TO THE FLORIDA...AND FROM NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N77W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...TO 
24N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURVES ALONG 
THE FLORIDA COAST FROM 28N80W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO THE 
NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER 
AIR IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IN MOST PLACES 
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THAT PART THAT IS TO THE 
SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TOWARD THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. 

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER...TO 
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...TOWARD THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 6 HOURS...IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN 
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO ALONG 93W/94W...FROM 22N INTO THE CENTRAL ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE 
FROM 22N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

OVERCAST CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED AT KXIH. 
OVERCAST CLOUDS AT 6500 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED AT KVBS. 

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF 
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS IS BEING REPORTED IN TEXAS IN... 
HARLINGEN AND ALICE. A CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET IS BEING 
OBSERVED AT THE PEARLAND REGIONAL AIRPORT IN THE HOUSTON 
METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED 
AT BROOKSVILLE-TAMPA BAY IN FLORIDA. LIGHT RAIN WAS OBSERVED 
DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS IN THE FORT MYERS FLORIDA AREA. 

...FROM THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 
THE U.S.A...INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N66W...TO 19N64W...TOWARD THE 
NORTHEAST COAST OF VENEZUELA. ONE SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 
30N70W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N73W TO 
23N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N FROM 65W WESTWARD.  
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 65W FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA TO 26N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 22N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W 
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 65W 
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. 

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A 
RIDGE...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W AND YUCATAN 
PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE 19N76W 
10N77W TROPICAL WAVE. 

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.16 IN 
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA TO 7N77W...THROUGH 
8N81W IN PANAMA...ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND 
10N85W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N 
TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W INCLUDING IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN 
VENEZUELA. NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 
2N FROM 81W EASTWARD...AND IN THE COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING 
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE 
EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE THAT IS ON TOP OF THE 19N76W 10N77W 
TROPICAL WAVE. 

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA 
TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL 
CLOUDS IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB...FOR 500 MB...AND FOR 700 MB 
SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL CROSS 
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH 
PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 27N30W AND 25N34W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS 
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 30N23W. THE COLD 
FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 30N23W TO 27N26W AND 24N33W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE 
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N17W 24N26W 23N37W 
24N50W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 17N38W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 
10N44W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 
22N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS 
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Oct-2014 11:09:33 UTC