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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 302347
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...    

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 17N18W TO 12N21W TO 6N22W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE 
GOES-R AIRMASS PRODUCT SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR 
MAINLY N OF 15N WHERE SOME DUST IS ALSO OBSERVED. MIDDLE-LEVEL 
CLOUDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHILE HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
SW OF THE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE 
WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 20W-25W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM  
19N46W TO 7N49W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 50W-55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 
NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO WITH 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N92W TO 12N92W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE 
WAVE IS BENEATH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
8N20W TO 5N37W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N37W TO 6N48W TO THE 
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION 
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-39W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                              

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

AS OF 2100 UTC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 
SEE ABOVE. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA 
AT 29N81W TO A 1009 MB LOW W OF TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR 28N84W TO THE 
NORTH CENTRAL GULF AT 27N88W TO THE NW GULF NEAR 29N93W TO 
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AT 28N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N93W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE AND THE TAIL 
END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO BE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF 
WITH CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...           

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER MOST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
OVER E CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA 
NEAR 15N70W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W TO HONDURAS. EXPECT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                         

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT ONLY A 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS SHOWERS WED. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...          

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
NEAR 31N77W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W TO CENTRAL 
FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N E 
OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N 
OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE N BAHAMAS...AND 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH 
FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 68W-76W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E 
NEAR 29N59W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N-33N 
BETWEEN 53W-59W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 30-Sep-2014 23:47:44 UTC