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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231033
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

METEO FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING ZONE CANARIAS IN BETWEEN 
ISLANDS. BEAUFORT 7 OR 32KT-38KT WINDS ARE FORECAST. THE GALE IS 
DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1037 MB HIGH 
OVER THE AZORES AND A 1007 MB LOW OVER W ALGERIA PRODUCING 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE AFRICAN EXTENDING FROM 11N29W TO 
3N29W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE WAVE WHILE A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND 
DUST IS N OF THE WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 7N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 5N27W. THE 
ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 4N31W AND CONTINUES TO 
3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
AFRICA FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 11W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 17W-26W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                       

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 
28N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN S OF LOUISIANA FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 87W-
90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER S MEXICO FROM 19N91W TO 15N94W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. 20 
KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 92W. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE W GULF HAS 10-15 KT E-SE SURFACE WINDS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER 
MEXICO FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 98W-104W. THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. 
THE GOES IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE GULF IS 
PRESENTLY VOID OF ANY IFR FOG OR STRATUS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. 
SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W AND 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 10-25 KT 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG 
THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS ALONG THE S COAST OF 
CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE LOCATED OVER BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EL 
SALVADOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA... 
HONDURAS...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO 
LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA...N OF PUERTO RICO...AND N OF THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE 
THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE 
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORM AGAIN SAT ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA 
AT 28N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE 
FRONT. A 1037 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 41N31W WITH 
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 45W. GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN ISLANDS. SEE 
ABOVE. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 56W-69W. 
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
NEAR 31N43W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO DIP INTO THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N61W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS AND 
CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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Page last modified: Saturday, 23-May-2015 10:33:32 UTC