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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231232
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH 
A STRONG SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W. GALE WINDS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS 
AFTERNOON AS IT DISSIPATE INLAND NORTHERN FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT 
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP 
GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF. SEE LATEST 
NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W 
TO 8N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N27W TO 5N44W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-10N 
EAST OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS 
TO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE 
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N64W...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE 
SW ACROSS FLORIDA. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED 
BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE W-NW GULF ALONG 
WITH INFLOW OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN 
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE FLORIDA AND 
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 89W. A TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A WARM FRONT MOVING 
ALONG CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS SE WIND FLOW OF 20-
25 KT N OF 27N E OF 88W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING 
ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W ASSOCIATED WITH A 
SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W AND THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY 
FRONT ALONG 29N95W TO 29N93W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EAST 
OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH MOIST AIR BEING 
ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT FUELS THE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SQUALL LINE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. 
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE AND A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE FROM 
TEXAS LATER  TODAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN 
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
CONVECTION. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER 
BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA 
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS N OF 14N. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. 
TRADES OF 20 KT ARE EAST OF 80W WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE 
GRADIENT PROVIDES LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE 
DAYS. 

...HISPANIOLA... 

A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS 
WELL AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT ALONG WITH LIFTING 
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENHANCE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-72W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS 
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS 
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES 
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N43W SW TO 25N57W WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND 
THEN INTO A WARMN FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SIMILAR 
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS CONTINUE WITHIN 140 NM NORTH AND EAST OF THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E-NE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1004 MB LOW IS NE OF 
THE CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N E OF 
12W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 
20N. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE SW N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL BASIN 
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN BASIN BY TUESDAY 
NIGHT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Nov-2014 12:32:41 UTC